NGS Correlations
Which advanced metrics actually matter for fantasy — pooled across 2021–2026 player seasons
How to read this
Each row is one metric from the NGS Leaderboard, tested three ways against PPR points per game (regular season, minimum 6 games):
- Same season — does the metric move with fantasy scoring in the same year?
- Next season — does this year's metric predict next year's scoring? This is the one that matters for trades and keepers.
- Stability — does a player repeat the metric year over year? High stability = a real skill; low = mostly situation and noise.
r runs from −1 to +1: near 0 means no relationship, positive means more of the metric → more points. The sweet spot is a metric that's stable AND predictive. Caveats: correlation isn't causation; volume stats (targets, attempts) dominate because opportunity is king; next-season and stability columns only include players who qualified in back-to-back seasons, which favors established players.
n = player seasons in each comparison. Same-season pools every qualified player season; next-season pairs a season with the following year's scoring. Source: NFL Next Gen Stats + nflverse play-by-play.