College Watch List — Week 9
2026 FBS target and carry shares through week 9 — who gained a role this week, and whose production holds up once the schedule is taken into account
How this week's list is built
Every FBS skill player with a week 9 stat line is screened. Usage risers gained 12+ share points of their team's targets (WR/TE) or 20+ points of its carries (RB) versus their share over weeks 1–8; usage fallers lost that much from a real prior role. Opponent-adjusted producers scale every game's points by the opponent's pregame Elo rating relative to the FBS average (a 2000-Elo defense counts about 1.3×, an FCS opponent about 0.65×), then rank season-to-date points per game within position among players with at least 3 games. Padded by the schedule and hidden by the schedule are the players whose within-position percentile moves the most once that adjustment is applied — soft-slate producers are flagged there rather than dropped from the page.
Points are PPR without touchdowns (receptions + yards; passing yards and interceptions for QBs) because the play-level source does not chart touchdowns reliably. Chips: G5 outside the SEC / Big Ten / ACC / Big 12 · FCS OPP this week's line came against a non-FBS team · SOFT SLATE / TOUGH SLATE schedule in the easiest / hardest quarter at his position. Editions are frozen when published, so earlier weeks keep the lists they were published with.
What do these columns mean?
- Share
- This week's share of his team's targets (WR/TE) or carries (RB).
- Prior / Δ
- His share over the earlier weeks of the season and the change in share points.
- Vol
- Targets or carries this week.
- Yds / Pts
- Receiving + rushing yards this week, and PPR points without touchdowns.
- Opponent
- This week's opponent, its pregame Elo and the result.
- Raw PPG / Adj PPG
- Season-to-date points per game, before and after the opponent-strength adjustment.
- Raw pct / Adj pct
- Within-position percentile of each (100 = best).
- Shift
- Adjusted percentile minus raw percentile. Negative = the schedule flattered him; positive = it hid him.
- SoS pct
- Schedule percentile among his position peers (100 = easiest slate), from the average pregame Elo of the opponents he has faced.
- Team
- Conference, and the team's current Elo rank among FBS teams.
- Next
- Next scheduled opponent and its Elo.
📈 Usage risers
Biggest gains in target or carry share versus weeks 1–8.
| Player | Pos | Cls | Team | Share | Prior | Δ | Vol | Yds | Pts | Opponent | SoS pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Young | RB | SR |
Colorado
Big 12 · #112 of 138 |
62% | 11% | +50 | 24 | 120 | 12.0 | at Kansas State Elo 1601 · W 27-24 | 28 |
| Cardae Mack | RB | FR |
Arizona State
Big 12 · #74 of 138 |
82% | 32% | +50 | 23 | 170 | 22.0 | at BYU Elo 1708 · L 20-27 | 16 TOUGH SLATE |
| Jaylon Domingeaux | WR | SR |
Wisconsin
Big Ten · #40 of 138 |
42% | 12% | +29 | 10 | 86 | 14.6 | at Iowa Elo 1846 · L 0-30 | 0 TOUGH SLATE |
| Tre Richardson | WR | SR |
Louisville
ACC · #29 of 138 |
45% | 19% | +27 | 15 | 197 | 29.7 | at Stanford Elo 1157 · W 52-24 | 42 |
| Anthony Eager | WR | SR |
South Alabama
G5
Sun Belt · #105 of 138 |
42% | 16% | +26 | 11 | 102 | 17.2 | at Louisiana Tech Elo 1450 · L 20-35 | 76 SOFT SLATE |
| Luke Gilbert | TE | SO |
Jacksonville State
G5
Conference USA · #75 of 138 |
35% | 9% | +26 | 7 | 67 | 11.7 | at New Mexico State Elo 1249 · W 24-0 | – |
| Seth Cromwell | RB | SR |
James Madison
G5
Sun Belt · #21 of 138 |
57% | 17% | +41 | 23 | 154 | 17.4 | at Troy Elo 1314 · L 21-24 | 58 |
| Xavier Williams | RB | JR |
Iowa
Big Ten · #11 of 138 |
53% | 13% | +40 | 20 | 101 | 12.1 | at Wisconsin Elo 1708 · W 30-0 | 30 |
| Elijah Porter | RB | SO |
Northern Illinois
G5
Mountain West · #131 of 138 |
58% | 19% | +39 | 21 | 113 | 11.3 | at UNLV Elo 1489 · L 24-31 | 57 |
| DeJuan Williams | RB | SO |
Maryland
Big Ten · #107 of 138 |
70% | 33% | +38 | 19 | 58 | 6.8 | at Illinois Elo 1580 · L 17-20 | 19 TOUGH SLATE |
| Kenny Johnson | WR | SR |
Texas Tech
Big 12 · #13 of 138 |
45% | 22% | +23 | 9 | 49 | 8.9 | at Arizona Elo 1811 · W 34-26 | 47 |
| Chris Lawson | WR | SO |
Washington
Big Ten · #30 of 138 |
39% | 18% | +21 | 13 | 159 | 27.9 | at Nebraska Elo 1767 · W 17-10 | 22 TOUGH SLATE |
📉 Usage fallers
Biggest drops in target or carry share from a real prior role.
| Player | Pos | Cls | Team | Share | Prior | Δ | Vol | Yds | Pts | Opponent | SoS pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Carrie | RB | SO |
Florida International
G5
Conference USA · #101 of 138 |
0% | 40% | -40 | 0 | 20 | 5.0 | at Liberty Elo 1770 · L 10-49 | 60 |
| Dawson Pendergrass | RB | SR |
Baylor
Big 12 · #34 of 138 |
3% | 38% | -35 | 1 | 7 | 0.7 | at UCF Elo 1477 · W 41-9 | 44 |
| Telly Johnson Jr. | RB | JR |
Northern Illinois
G5
Mountain West · #131 of 138 |
22% | 54% | -31 | 8 | 73 | 8.3 | at UNLV Elo 1489 · L 24-31 | 57 |
| Jayden Limar | RB | SR |
Washington
Big Ten · #30 of 138 |
14% | 43% | -29 | 2 | 19 | 2.9 | at Nebraska Elo 1767 · W 17-10 | – |
| Adam Mohammed | RB | JR |
California
ACC · #122 of 138 |
38% | 65% | -27 | 9 | 35 | 4.5 | at NC State Elo 1465 · L 10-31 | 81 SOFT SLATE |
| Matthew Fuller | RB | SO |
South Carolina
SEC · #26 of 138 |
10% | 37% | -27 | 4 | 17 | 1.7 | at Oklahoma Elo 1719 · W 42-25 | 18 TOUGH SLATE |
| Jordon Davison | RB | SO |
Oregon
Big Ten · #19 of 138 |
13% | 40% | -27 | 3 | 20 | 3.0 | at Northwestern Elo 1756 · W 34-26 | 22 TOUGH SLATE |
| Herschel Turner | RB | JR |
Nevada
G5
Mountain West · #85 of 138 |
0% | 27% | -27 | 0 | 8 | 1.8 | at UCLA Elo 1709 · L 0-27 | 73 |
| Charles Robinson | WR | JR |
Navy
G5
American Athletic · #64 of 138 |
8% | 24% | -16 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | at Notre Dame Elo 2082 · L 13-35 | 32 |
| Nathaniel Joseph | WR | SR |
East Carolina
G5
American Athletic · #81 of 138 |
7% | 22% | -16 | 2 | 33 | 5.3 | at Temple Elo 1298 · W 17-9 | 80 SOFT SLATE |
| Ed Small | WR | SO |
Kansas
Big 12 · #50 of 138 |
7% | 23% | -16 | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | at TCU Elo 1601 · L 16-22 | 51 |
| Coy Eakin | WR | SR |
Texas Tech
Big 12 · #13 of 138 |
0% | 15% | -15 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | at Arizona Elo 1811 · W 34-26 | – |
🏆 Opponent-adjusted producers
Top six per position by season-to-date points per game once every game is weighted by the opponent's Elo. The shift column shows how far the schedule moved each player.
| Player | Pos | Cls | Team | G | Vol/G | Raw PPG | Adj PPG | Raw pct | Adj pct | Shift | SoS pct | Next |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Eshelman | QB | FR |
Washington State
G5
Pac-12 · #87 of 138 |
3 | 33.0 | 19.6 | 19.8 | 99.4 | 99.4 | +0.0 | 28 | W11 vs Colorado State (1152) |
| Michael Hawkins Jr. | QB | SO |
West Virginia
Big 12 · #93 of 138 |
8 | 17.0 | 18.9 | 18.6 | 98.8 | 98.8 | +0.0 | 43 | W10 at Texas Tech (1836) |
| Lanorris Sellers | QB | JR |
South Carolina
SEC · #26 of 138 |
8 | 26.4 | 17.1 | 18.1 | 98.2 | 98.2 | +0.0 | 16 TOUGH SLATE | W10 vs Texas A&M (1728) |
| Byrum Brown | QB | SR |
Auburn
SEC · #46 of 138 |
8 | 30.9 | 14.4 | 16.7 | 88.9 | 97.7 | +8.8 | 0 TOUGH SLATE | W10 vs Arkansas (1478) |
| Avery Johnson | QB | SR |
Kansas State
Big 12 · #49 of 138 |
6 | 28.5 | 16.1 | 16.2 | 96.5 | 97.1 | +0.6 | 40 | W10 vs Oklahoma State (1464) |
| Keelon Russell | QB | SO |
Alabama
SEC · #8 of 138 |
8 | 28.0 | 14.1 | 16.0 | 87.7 | 96.5 | +8.8 | 1 TOUGH SLATE | W10 at LSU (1943) |
| Caleb Hawkins | RB | SO |
Oklahoma State
Big 12 · #77 of 138 |
8 | 25.5 | 19.8 | 19.2 | 99.5 | 99.8 | +0.3 | 46 | W10 at Kansas State (1595) |
| Nate Sheppard | RB | SO |
Duke
ACC · #27 of 138 |
8 | 25.6 | 19.6 | 19.0 | 99.3 | 99.5 | +0.2 | 48 | W10 at NC State (1492) |
| Jahiem White | RB | SR |
North Texas
G5
American Athletic · #38 of 138 |
8 | 22.2 | 20.3 | 18.7 | 99.8 | 99.3 | -0.5 | 63 | W10 vs Rice (1129) |
| Jamal Roberts | RB | JR |
Missouri
SEC · #20 of 138 |
8 | 25.1 | 15.9 | 17.3 | 98.8 | 99.0 | +0.2 | 16 TOUGH SLATE | W10 vs Texas (1936) |
| Dylan Riley | RB | JR |
Boise State
G5
Pac-12 · #32 of 138 |
8 | 22.9 | 16.7 | 16.3 | 99.0 | 98.8 | -0.2 | 30 | W10 at Colorado State (1152) |
| Wayshawn Parker | RB | JR |
Utah
Big 12 · #10 of 138 |
8 | 16.6 | 15.6 | 15.7 | 98.5 | 98.5 | +0.0 | 39 | W10 vs BYU (1705) |
| Jeremiah Smith | WR | JR |
Ohio State
Big Ten · #4 of 138 |
8 | 9.6 | 21.3 | 22.9 | 99.3 | 99.7 | +0.4 | 13 TOUGH SLATE | W10 vs Oregon (1797) |
| Malachi Toney | WR | SO |
Miami
ACC · #5 of 138 |
8 | 10.5 | 22.7 | 22.2 | 99.7 | 99.3 | -0.4 | 52 | W10 at Notre Dame (2073) |
| Carlos Hernandez | WR | SR |
Wake Forest
ACC · #12 of 138 |
7 | 8.9 | 20.5 | 20.2 | 98.7 | 99.0 | +0.3 | 41 | W10 vs Merrimack (1000) |
| Jesse Legree | WR | FR |
Oregon State
G5
Pac-12 · #52 of 138 |
8 | 8.9 | 20.5 | 20.0 | 99.0 | 98.7 | -0.3 | 55 | W10 vs Texas State (1569) |
| Umari Hatcher | WR | SR |
Syracuse
ACC · #102 of 138 |
8 | 10.6 | 19.9 | 19.9 | 98.4 | 98.4 | +0.0 | 30 | W10 vs Clemson (1566) |
| Easton Messer | WR | SR |
Florida Atlantic
G5
American Athletic · #115 of 138 |
8 | 10.8 | 19.3 | 18.2 | 98.0 | 98.0 | +0.0 | 85 SOFT SLATE | W10 vs UTSA (1588) |
| Trey'Dez Green | TE | JR |
LSU
SEC · #7 of 138 |
4 | 5.8 | 11.7 | 12.8 | 93.5 | 97.8 | +4.3 | 4 TOUGH SLATE | W10 vs Alabama (1939) |
| Luke Reynolds | TE | JR |
Virginia Tech
ACC · #61 of 138 |
8 | 7.4 | 12.7 | 12.0 | 97.8 | 95.7 | -2.1 | 67 | W10 at SMU (1752) |
| Luke Dehnicke | TE | SO |
Northwestern
Big Ten · #25 of 138 |
4 | 4.2 | 9.8 | 11.6 | 80.4 | 93.5 | +13.1 | 22 TOUGH SLATE | W10 vs Iowa (1909) |
| Jelani Thurman | TE | JR |
North Carolina
ACC · #67 of 138 |
8 | 7.0 | 10.5 | 11.3 | 89.1 | 91.3 | +2.2 | 15 TOUGH SLATE | W10 at UConn (1475) |
| Rocky Beers | TE | SR |
Oklahoma
SEC · #36 of 138 |
8 | 5.0 | 9.8 | 11.1 | 82.6 | 89.1 | +6.5 | 9 TOUGH SLATE | W10 at Florida (1629) |
| Kari Ashley | TE | JR |
TCU
Big 12 · #48 of 138 |
8 | 6.4 | 11.9 | 11.1 | 95.7 | 87.0 | -8.7 | 52 | W10 at Arizona (1800) |
⚠️ Padded by the schedule
Top-quartile raw producers whose percentile drops ten or more points once their opponents are accounted for. Real production, softer competition — weigh accordingly.
| Player | Pos | Cls | Team | G | Vol/G | Raw PPG | Adj PPG | Raw pct | Adj pct | Shift | SoS pct | Next |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Harding | WR | SR |
Massachusetts
G5
Mid-American · #129 of 138 |
6 | 6.5 | 11.7 | 9.4 | 78.8 | 62.4 | -16.4 | 100 SOFT SLATE | W10 vs Ball State (1098) |
| Eric Olsen | TE | SR |
Oregon State
G5
Pac-12 · #52 of 138 |
8 | 5.6 | 9.9 | 9.2 | 84.8 | 69.6 | -15.2 | 61 | W10 vs Texas State (1569) |
| Wayne Harris | WR | SO |
Kent State
G5
Mid-American · #137 of 138 |
9 | 7.0 | 11.5 | 9.5 | 77.5 | 63.1 | -14.4 | 86 SOFT SLATE | W11 at Bowling Green (1225) |
| Eli Finley | TE | SR |
Louisiana Tech
G5
Sun Belt · #72 of 138 |
8 | 6.2 | 11.1 | 10.0 | 91.3 | 78.3 | -13.0 | 87 SOFT SLATE | W10 at Troy (1354) |
| Kalieb Osborne | QB | FR |
UConn
G5
FBS Independents · #72 of 138 |
8 | 22.4 | 14.9 | 12.5 | 91.2 | 78.4 | -12.8 | 96 SOFT SLATE | W10 vs North Carolina (1486) |
| Jmariyae Robinson | WR | SR |
Missouri State
G5
Conference USA · #117 of 138 |
7 | 8.4 | 12.5 | 10.4 | 83.7 | 71.9 | -11.8 | 92 SOFT SLATE | W10 at Florida International (1337) |
| Sean Wilson | WR | JR |
Delaware
G5
Conference USA · #89 of 138 |
8 | 7.5 | 12.4 | 10.5 | 83.3 | 72.2 | -11.1 | 69 | W10 at Kennesaw State (1293) |
🔎 Hidden by the schedule
Players whose percentile rises ten or more points after adjustment — solid lines against the toughest slates at their position.
| Player | Pos | Cls | Team | G | Vol/G | Raw PPG | Adj PPG | Raw pct | Adj pct | Shift | SoS pct | Next |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylon Domingeaux | WR | SR |
Wisconsin
Big Ten · #40 of 138 |
3 | 4.3 | 6.9 | 8.3 | 22.5 | 51.6 | +29.1 | 0 TOUGH SLATE | W10 vs Rutgers (1368) |
| Luke Lindenmeyer | TE | SR |
Nebraska
Big Ten · #23 of 138 |
8 | 4.6 | 6.4 | 6.9 | 28.3 | 50.0 | +21.7 | 33 | W10 at Illinois (1568) |
| Cam Coleman | WR | JR |
Texas
SEC · #9 of 138 |
8 | 4.1 | 7.7 | 8.6 | 35.0 | 54.6 | +19.6 | 2 TOUGH SLATE | W10 at Missouri (1784) |
| Billy Edwards | QB | SR |
North Carolina
ACC · #67 of 138 |
8 | 27.4 | 10.2 | 10.9 | 49.1 | 67.3 | +18.2 | 8 TOUGH SLATE | W10 at UConn (1475) |
| Ryan Williams | WR | JR |
Alabama
SEC · #8 of 138 |
6 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 8.9 | 40.5 | 58.2 | +17.7 | 4 TOUGH SLATE | W10 at LSU (1943) |
| Kenny Minchey | QB | JR |
Kentucky
SEC · #42 of 138 |
8 | 28.1 | 10.4 | 11.1 | 51.5 | 68.4 | +16.9 | 7 TOUGH SLATE | W10 at Tennessee (1829) |
| Duce Robinson | WR | SR |
Florida State
ACC · #53 of 138 |
8 | 5.4 | 8.0 | 8.9 | 41.2 | 57.8 | +16.6 | 11 TOUGH SLATE | W10 at Boston College (1357) |
| Horatio Fields | WR | SR |
Ole Miss
SEC · #6 of 138 |
8 | 4.6 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 39.9 | 56.2 | +16.3 | 4 TOUGH SLATE | W10 vs Georgia (2037) |
| Emmett Mosley V | WR | JR |
Texas
SEC · #9 of 138 |
8 | 4.2 | 8.4 | 9.5 | 47.4 | 63.4 | +16.0 | 2 TOUGH SLATE | W10 at Missouri (1784) |
| Tommy Carr | QB | FR |
Michigan
Big Ten · #31 of 138 |
4 | 16.0 | 9.2 | 10.0 | 39.2 | 54.4 | +15.2 | 9 TOUGH SLATE | W10 vs Michigan State (1444) |
| Chas Nimrod | WR | SR |
Auburn
SEC · #46 of 138 |
8 | 7.4 | 9.7 | 11.1 | 62.1 | 76.8 | +14.7 | 1 TOUGH SLATE | W10 vs Arkansas (1478) |
| Bailey Stockton | WR | JR |
Florida
SEC · #43 of 138 |
8 | 5.2 | 8.9 | 10.0 | 53.9 | 68.6 | +14.7 | 7 TOUGH SLATE | W10 vs Oklahoma (1676) |
Sources: cfbfastR play-by-play player attribution and CollegeFootballData schedules with Elo ratings (FBS games only; FCS opponents carry no rating and are weighted at 1000). Edition generated 2026-11-10 20:42 UTC; earlier weeks stay as published.