College Watch List Week 7 - Sleeper Leader

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How this week's list is built

Every FBS skill player with a week 7 stat line is screened. Usage risers gained 12+ share points of their team's targets (WR/TE) or 20+ points of its carries (RB) versus their share over weeks 1–6; usage fallers lost that much from a real prior role. Opponent-adjusted producers scale every game's points by the opponent's pregame Elo rating relative to the FBS average (a 2000-Elo defense counts about 1.3×, an FCS opponent about 0.65×), then rank season-to-date points per game within position among players with at least 3 games. Padded by the schedule and hidden by the schedule are the players whose within-position percentile moves the most once that adjustment is applied — soft-slate producers are flagged there rather than dropped from the page.

Points are PPR without touchdowns (receptions + yards; passing yards and interceptions for QBs) because the play-level source does not chart touchdowns reliably. Chips: G5 outside the SEC / Big Ten / ACC / Big 12 · FCS OPP this week's line came against a non-FBS team · SOFT SLATE / TOUGH SLATE schedule in the easiest / hardest quarter at his position. Editions are frozen when published, so earlier weeks keep the lists they were published with.

What do these columns mean?

Share: This week's share of his team's targets (WR/TE) or carries (RB).
Prior / Δ: His share over the earlier weeks of the season and the change in share points.
Vol: Targets or carries this week.
Yds / Pts: Receiving + rushing yards this week, and PPR points without touchdowns.
Opponent: This week's opponent, its pregame Elo and the result.
Raw PPG / Adj PPG: Season-to-date points per game, before and after the opponent-strength adjustment.
Raw pct / Adj pct: Within-position percentile of each (100 = best).
Shift: Adjusted percentile minus raw percentile. Negative = the schedule flattered him; positive = it hid him.
SoS pct: Schedule percentile among his position peers (100 = easiest slate), from the average pregame Elo of the opponents he has faced.
Team: Conference, and the team's current Elo rank among FBS teams.
Next: Next scheduled opponent and its Elo.

📈 Usage risers

Biggest gains in target or carry share versus weeks 1–6.

Player	Pos	Cls	Team	Share	Prior	Δ	Vol	Yds	Pts	Opponent	SoS pct
Jaylon Hawkins	WR	FR	San Diego State G5 Pac-12 · #115 of 138	60%	17%	+43	9	86	14.6	at Fresno State Elo 1635 · W 26-23	16 TOUGH SLATE
Cataurus Hicks	WR	JR	Pittsburgh ACC · #45 of 138	62%	28%	+34	8	135	18.5	at Boston College Elo 1381 · L 21-27	76 SOFT SLATE
Marcus Calwise Jr.	WR	JR	Louisiana Tech G5 Sun Belt · #87 of 138	41%	7%	+34	9	172	25.2	at UL Monroe Elo 1014 · W 24-0	40
Viliami Teu	RB	JR	San José State G5 Mountain West · #91 of 138	61%	9%	+52	20	158	16.8	at UTEP Elo 986 · W 24-11	90 SOFT SLATE
Trelain Maddox	RB	SO	Georgia Tech ACC · #72 of 138	69%	21%	+48	11	102	13.2	at Virginia Tech Elo 1489 · L 24-34	45
Colin Chase	WR	SR	Temple G5 American Athletic · #108 of 138	45%	19%	+26	9	115	17.5	at Charlotte Elo 982 · L 31-38	42
Aaron Gregory	WR	FR	Texas A&M SEC · #23 of 138	32%	7%	+25	8	94	15.4	at The Citadel FCS OPP · W 41-0	–
CJ Nelson	WR	SR	Ball State G5 Mid-American · #132 of 138	32%	8%	+23	7	59	11.9	at Bowling Green Elo 1245 · W 32-31	–
Jaden Allen-Hendrix	RB	SO	Coastal Carolina G5 Sun Belt · #113 of 138	58%	19%	+39	7	11	1.1	at App State Elo 1297 · L 32-35	75 SOFT SLATE
DeSean Bishop	RB	JR	Tennessee SEC · #13 of 138	83%	44%	+39	30	163	19.3	at Alabama Elo 1990 · W 26-10	16 TOUGH SLATE
Eric Singleton Jr.	WR	SR	Florida SEC · #38 of 138	29%	6%	+23	10	53	12.3	at Texas Elo 1914 · W 27-24	0 TOUGH SLATE
Dylan Gary	WR	JR	Kennesaw State G5 Conference USA · #111 of 138	35%	12%	+23	12	135	23.5	at Missouri State Elo 1231 · L 21-24	81 SOFT SLATE

📉 Usage fallers

Biggest drops in target or carry share from a real prior role.

Player	Pos	Cls	Team	Share	Prior	Δ	Vol	Yds	Pts	Opponent	SoS pct
Jeremy Payne	RB	JR	TCU Big 12 · #43 of 138	4%	55%	-51	1	-3	-0.3	at Baylor Elo 1643 · W 17-6	48
Davis Lane	WR	SR	Rice G5 American Athletic · #129 of 138	0%	30%	-30	0	14	1.4	at Tulsa Elo 1241 · L 17-38	–
Chris Marshall	WR	SR	Arkansas SEC · #63 of 138	6%	32%	-26	2	28	3.8	at Vanderbilt Elo 1610 · W 31-21	10 TOUGH SLATE
Benjamin Hall	RB	JR	North Carolina ACC · #74 of 138	6%	43%	-37	2	7	0.7	at Duke Elo 1653 · W 24-20	10 TOUGH SLATE
Omarion Miller	WR	SR	Arizona State Big 12 · #79 of 138	10%	31%	-21	4	58	9.8	at Texas Tech Elo 1862 · L 25-53	23 TOUGH SLATE
Jake Wilson	TE	SO	Wyoming G5 Mountain West · #105 of 138	5%	24%	-19	1	9	1.9	at Northern Illinois Elo 1167 · W 41-23	93 SOFT SLATE
Devon Rice	RB	SO	Hawai'i G5 Mountain West · #100 of 138	19%	50%	-31	4	17	3.7	at New Mexico Elo 1683 · L 10-21	46
Rueben Owens	RB	JR	Texas A&M SEC · #23 of 138	5%	35%	-30	2	10	1.0	at The Citadel FCS OPP · W 41-0	29
Justin Ruffin Jr.	WR	SO	Central Michigan G5 Mid-American · #121 of 138	3%	21%	-18	1	0	0.0	at Western Michigan Elo 1493 · L 14-21	–
Jeremiah Scoby	TE	SO	Bowling Green G5 Mid-American · #119 of 138	10%	27%	-18	2	17	3.7	at Ball State Elo 1054 · L 31-32	84 SOFT SLATE
Jimmy Calloway	WR	SR	Tulsa G5 American Athletic · #112 of 138	4%	21%	-17	1	24	3.4	at Rice Elo 1174 · W 38-17	98 SOFT SLATE
Jeremiah Smith	WR	JR	Ohio State Big Ten · #3 of 138	21%	38%	-17	6	70	11.0	at Indiana Elo 2098 · W 19-15	14 TOUGH SLATE

🏆 Opponent-adjusted producers

Top six per position by season-to-date points per game once every game is weighted by the opponent's Elo. The shift column shows how far the schedule moved each player.

Player	Pos	Cls	Team	G	Vol/G	Raw PPG	Adj PPG	Raw pct	Adj pct	Shift	SoS pct	Next
Michael Hawkins Jr.	QB	SO	West Virginia Big 12 · #102 of 138	7	20.4	19.9	19.4	99.4	99.4	+0.0	43	W8 at TCU (1628)
Byrum Brown	QB	SR	Auburn SEC · #30 of 138	6	30.8	15.2	17.1	92.5	98.8	+6.3	1 TOUGH SLATE	W8 vs LSU (1913)
Avery Johnson	QB	SR	Kansas State Big 12 · #40 of 138	6	30.7	16.1	16.2	98.8	98.1	-0.7	35	W8 at Arizona State (1435)
Lanorris Sellers	QB	JR	South Carolina SEC · #30 of 138	6	30.8	16.0	16.2	97.5	97.5	+0.0	32	W8 vs Tennessee (1832)
Keelon Russell	QB	SO	Alabama SEC · #7 of 138	7	27.6	14.2	16.0	88.8	96.9	+8.1	1 TOUGH SLATE	W8 vs Texas A&M (1733)
Kamario Taylor	QB	SO	Mississippi State SEC · #58 of 138	5	30.4	15.2	15.8	93.2	96.3	+3.1	6 TOUGH SLATE	W8 vs Oklahoma (1716)
Nate Sheppard	RB	SO	Duke ACC · #42 of 138	6	27.5	22.1	21.3	99.7	99.7	+0.0	56	W8 at Virginia (1582)
Jahiem White	RB	SR	North Texas G5 American Athletic · #36 of 138	6	20.8	18.7	17.2	99.5	99.5	+0.0	62	W8 at Navy (1493)
Jamal Roberts	RB	JR	Missouri SEC · #20 of 138	7	25.3	15.6	17.1	98.0	99.2	+1.2	14 TOUGH SLATE	W9 at Arkansas (1515)
Dylan Riley	RB	JR	Boise State G5 Pac-12 · #33 of 138	6	23.2	17.6	17.1	99.2	99.0	-0.2	28	W8 at Washington State (1446)
Wayshawn Parker	RB	JR	Utah Big 12 · #9 of 138	6	18.2	16.4	16.3	98.2	98.7	+0.5	47	W8 vs Houston (1610)
Caleb Hawkins	RB	SO	Oklahoma State Big 12 · #93 of 138	6	25.3	16.7	16.3	98.5	98.5	+0.0	42	W8 vs Colorado (1353)
Jeremiah Smith	WR	JR	Ohio State Big Ten · #3 of 138	7	10.6	21.6	22.9	99.1	99.7	+0.6	14 TOUGH SLATE	W9 at USC (1804)
Umari Hatcher	WR	SR	Syracuse ACC · #106 of 138	6	12.5	22.1	21.8	99.7	99.4	-0.3	33	W8 at North Carolina (1470)
Malachi Toney	WR	SO	Miami ACC · #5 of 138	6	10.3	21.8	20.7	99.4	99.1	-0.3	61	W8 vs Pittsburgh (1624)
Jesse Legree	WR	FR	Oregon State G5 Pac-12 · #49 of 138	7	9.3	21.5	20.7	98.8	98.8	+0.0	64	W9 at Fresno State (1628)
Anthony Evans III	WR	SR	Mississippi State SEC · #58 of 138	6	10.2	18.1	20.0	97.3	98.5	+1.2	4 TOUGH SLATE	W8 vs Oklahoma (1716)
Carlos Hernandez	WR	SR	Wake Forest ACC · #19 of 138	6	10.7	20.3	19.7	98.5	98.2	-0.3	40	W9 vs Virginia (1582)
Trey'Dez Green	TE	JR	LSU SEC · #8 of 138	3	6.7	12.3	13.3	95.3	97.7	+2.4	12 TOUGH SLATE	W8 at Auburn (1699)
Luke Dehnicke	TE	SO	Northwestern Big Ten · #25 of 138	3	4.3	10.6	12.6	88.4	95.3	+6.9	30	W8 vs Rutgers (1390)
Luke Reynolds	TE	JR	Virginia Tech ACC · #66 of 138	7	8.1	12.7	11.9	97.7	93.0	-4.7	67	W8 at Clemson (1541)
Patrick Overmyer	TE	JR	Houston Big 12 · #50 of 138	7	8.1	11.6	11.7	93.0	90.7	-2.3	44	W8 at Utah (1901)
Rocky Beers	TE	SR	Oklahoma SEC · #27 of 138	6	5.5	9.8	11.2	83.7	88.4	+4.7	9 TOUGH SLATE	W8 at Mississippi State (1558)
Caleb Odom	TE	JR	Ole Miss SEC · #6 of 138	5	5.8	9.7	11.2	81.4	86.0	+4.6	0 TOUGH SLATE	W8 at Texas (1890)

⚠️ Padded by the schedule

Top-quartile raw producers whose percentile drops ten or more points once their opponents are accounted for. Real production, softer competition — weigh accordingly.

Player	Pos	Cls	Team	G	Vol/G	Raw PPG	Adj PPG	Raw pct	Adj pct	Shift	SoS pct	Next
Kalieb Osborne	QB	FR	UConn G5 FBS Independents · #71 of 138	6	27.3	15.4	12.8	95.0	80.1	-14.9	94 SOFT SLATE	W8 vs Massachusetts (1132)
Ty Harding	WR	SR	Massachusetts G5 Mid-American · #128 of 138	6	6.5	11.7	9.4	82.0	67.4	-14.6	99 SOFT SLATE	W8 at UConn (1483)
Tyler Hughes	QB	SR	Wyoming G5 Mountain West · #105 of 138	7	21.1	13.7	11.6	83.9	70.8	-13.1	89 SOFT SLATE	W8 vs Air Force (1484)
Mason Heintschel	QB	SO	Pittsburgh ACC · #45 of 138	5	29.8	13.0	11.0	77.0	64.6	-12.4	81 SOFT SLATE	W8 at Miami (1982)
Matthew Coleman	WR	SR	Sacramento State G5 Mid-American · #134 of 138	7	8.9	11.8	9.9	82.6	71.3	-11.3	93 SOFT SLATE	W8 at Ball State (1065)
CJ Miller	RB	JR	Toledo G5 Mid-American · #60 of 138	7	12.7	8.1	6.5	75.3	64.5	-10.8	96 SOFT SLATE	W8 vs Western Michigan (1486)
Rickie Collins	QB	JR	Kennesaw State G5 Conference USA · #111 of 138	6	30.8	13.8	12.2	85.1	74.5	-10.6	81 SOFT SLATE	W8 vs Liberty (1746)
Caden Creel	QB	JR	Jacksonville State G5 Conference USA · #81 of 138	7	27.1	16.1	13.8	98.1	87.6	-10.5	86 SOFT SLATE	W9 at New Mexico State (1249)
Adjatay Dabbs	WR	JR	Toledo G5 Mid-American · #60 of 138	7	7.7	11.5	9.7	79.9	69.5	-10.4	96 SOFT SLATE	W8 vs Western Michigan (1486)
Gio Richardson	WR	SO	Arizona Big 12 · #26 of 138	3	5.7	11.2	9.5	77.7	67.7	-10.0	61	W8 vs Iowa State (1643)

🔎 Hidden by the schedule

Players whose percentile rises ten or more points after adjustment — solid lines against the toughest slates at their position.

Player	Pos	Cls	Team	G	Vol/G	Raw PPG	Adj PPG	Raw pct	Adj pct	Shift	SoS pct	Next
Emmett Mosley V	WR	JR	Texas SEC · #11 of 138	6	4.8	8.0	9.2	45.4	66.2	+20.8	0 TOUGH SLATE	W8 vs Ole Miss (1935)
Traylon Ray	WR	JR	Ole Miss SEC · #6 of 138	6	4.3	8.0	9.0	44.8	63.7	+18.9	5 TOUGH SLATE	W8 at Texas (1890)
Jayden Savoury	TE	FR	Michigan State Big Ten · #76 of 138	7	5.1	7.6	8.2	44.2	62.8	+18.6	12 TOUGH SLATE	W8 at UCLA (1690)
Kyler Kasper	WR	JR	BYU Big 12 · #22 of 138	6	5.8	7.5	8.2	35.1	53.4	+18.3	17 TOUGH SLATE	W8 at UCF (1445)
Chrishon Mccray	WR	SR	Michigan State Big Ten · #76 of 138	7	5.6	7.5	8.2	35.4	53.0	+17.6	3 TOUGH SLATE	W8 at UCLA (1690)
Ryan Williams	WR	JR	Alabama SEC · #7 of 138	6	5.0	8.0	8.9	44.8	62.2	+17.4	2 TOUGH SLATE	W8 vs Texas A&M (1733)
Arch Manning	QB	JR	Texas SEC · #11 of 138	6	27.3	11.8	13.4	68.3	85.1	+16.8	0 TOUGH SLATE	W8 vs Ole Miss (1935)
DJ Vonnahme	TE	JR	Iowa Big Ten · #12 of 138	5	5.6	8.0	9.2	55.8	72.1	+16.3	7 TOUGH SLATE	W8 at Minnesota (1427)
Caden High	WR	SR	Stanford ACC · #130 of 138	6	5.8	9.1	10.3	59.1	75.3	+16.2	10 TOUGH SLATE	W8 vs NC State (1471)
Kenny Minchey	QB	JR	Kentucky SEC · #52 of 138	7	29.3	10.3	11.0	47.8	63.4	+15.6	4 TOUGH SLATE	W8 vs Vanderbilt (1577)
Duce Robinson	WR	SR	Florida State ACC · #51 of 138	7	6.0	8.4	9.5	52.1	67.7	+15.6	8 TOUGH SLATE	W9 vs Clemson (1541)
John Mateer	QB	SR	Oklahoma SEC · #27 of 138	6	28.3	11.7	12.9	66.5	82.0	+15.5	2 TOUGH SLATE	W8 at Mississippi State (1558)

Sources: cfbfastR play-by-play player attribution and CollegeFootballData schedules with Elo ratings (FBS games only; FCS opponents carry no rating and are weighted at 1000). Edition generated 2026-10-28 19:20 UTC; earlier weeks stay as published.

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