College Watch List Week 5 - Sleeper Leader

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How this week's list is built

Every FBS skill player with a week 5 stat line is screened. Usage risers gained 12+ share points of their team's targets (WR/TE) or 20+ points of its carries (RB) versus their share over weeks 1–4; usage fallers lost that much from a real prior role. Opponent-adjusted producers scale every game's points by the opponent's pregame Elo rating relative to the FBS average (a 2000-Elo defense counts about 1.3×, an FCS opponent about 0.65×), then rank season-to-date points per game within position among players with at least 3 games. Padded by the schedule and hidden by the schedule are the players whose within-position percentile moves the most once that adjustment is applied — soft-slate producers are flagged there rather than dropped from the page.

Points are PPR without touchdowns (receptions + yards; passing yards and interceptions for QBs) because the play-level source does not chart touchdowns reliably. Chips: G5 outside the SEC / Big Ten / ACC / Big 12 · FCS OPP this week's line came against a non-FBS team · SOFT SLATE / TOUGH SLATE schedule in the easiest / hardest quarter at his position. Editions are frozen when published, so earlier weeks keep the lists they were published with.

What do these columns mean?

Share: This week's share of his team's targets (WR/TE) or carries (RB).
Prior / Δ: His share over the earlier weeks of the season and the change in share points.
Vol: Targets or carries this week.
Yds / Pts: Receiving + rushing yards this week, and PPR points without touchdowns.
Opponent: This week's opponent, its pregame Elo and the result.
Raw PPG / Adj PPG: Season-to-date points per game, before and after the opponent-strength adjustment.
Raw pct / Adj pct: Within-position percentile of each (100 = best).
Shift: Adjusted percentile minus raw percentile. Negative = the schedule flattered him; positive = it hid him.
SoS pct: Schedule percentile among his position peers (100 = easiest slate), from the average pregame Elo of the opponents he has faced.
Team: Conference, and the team's current Elo rank among FBS teams.
Next: Next scheduled opponent and its Elo.

📈 Usage risers

Biggest gains in target or carry share versus weeks 1–4.

Player	Pos	Cls	Team	Share	Prior	Δ	Vol	Yds	Pts	Opponent	SoS pct
Josiah Lucas	RB	FR	San Diego State G5 Pac-12 · #84 of 138	81%	20%	+60	21	126	16.6	at Texas State Elo 1491 · W 31-29	68
Ashten Emory	RB	SO	California ACC · #100 of 138	63%	14%	+49	12	59	7.9	at UNLV Elo 1491 · L 31-39	71
Chris Marshall	WR	SR	Arkansas SEC · #71 of 138	54%	28%	+26	13	76	14.6	at Texas A&M Elo 1742 · L 7-34	10 TOUGH SLATE
DeSean Bishop	RB	JR	Tennessee SEC · #14 of 138	76%	32%	+44	32	200	20.0	at Auburn Elo 1679 · W 24-14	24 TOUGH SLATE
Kenny Darby	WR	FR	Kentucky SEC · #55 of 138	44%	18%	+26	18	98	21.8	at South Carolina Elo 1655 · W 35-34	11 TOUGH SLATE
Tylik Hill	RB	SO	Syracuse ACC · #109 of 138	67%	24%	+43	28	140	14.0	at UConn Elo 1470 · W 42-41	93 SOFT SLATE
Carver Cheeks	WR	SR	UTEP G5 Mountain West · #137 of 138	43%	18%	+25	6	29	5.9	at New Mexico Elo 1589 · L 7-61	34
Junior Sherrill	WR	SR	Vanderbilt SEC · #26 of 138	50%	26%	+24	11	107	17.7	at Georgia Elo 2023 · L 14-38	17 TOUGH SLATE
Brian Bonner Jr.	RB	FR	Washington Big Ten · #21 of 138	69%	30%	+40	18	90	10.0	at USC Elo 1784 · L 21-25	45
Anthony Eager	WR	SR	South Alabama G5 Sun Belt · #98 of 138	42%	19%	+23	8	168	20.8	at UL Monroe Elo 1022 · W 52-35	72
Jonaz Walton	RB	FR	Notre Dame FBS Independents · #3 of 138	53%	15%	+38	23	148	16.8	at North Carolina Elo 1396 · W 37-26	66
Terrance Carter	TE	SR	Texas Tech Big 12 · #9 of 138	35%	12%	+23	9	67	14.7	at Colorado Elo 1327 · W 29-7	95 SOFT SLATE

📉 Usage fallers

Biggest drops in target or carry share from a real prior role.

Player	Pos	Cls	Team	Share	Prior	Δ	Vol	Yds	Pts	Opponent	SoS pct
Fluff Bothwell	RB	JR	Mississippi State SEC · #51 of 138	4%	51%	-47	1	1	0.1	at Alabama Elo 1929 · L 23-56	4 TOUGH SLATE
Jacory Barney Jr.	WR	JR	Nebraska Big Ten · #19 of 138	20%	43%	-23	2	11	3.1	at Maryland Elo 1316 · W 48-23	82 SOFT SLATE
Rodney Bullard Jr.	WR	SR	Michigan State Big Ten · #76 of 138	3%	25%	-21	1	13	2.3	at Wisconsin Elo 1612 · L 3-31	1 TOUGH SLATE
Josh Dallas	WR	SR	Georgia Southern G5 Sun Belt · #99 of 138	13%	34%	-21	2	9	1.9	at Coastal Carolina Elo 1270 · W 31-24	68
Mario Craver	WR	JR	Texas A&M SEC · #14 of 138	5%	26%	-21	1	10	2.0	at Arkansas Elo 1516 · W 34-7	12 TOUGH SLATE
Ca'Lil Valentine	RB	JR	Illinois Big Ten · #58 of 138	8%	42%	-35	2	1	0.1	at Purdue Elo 1288 · L 17-24	27
LJ Martin	RB	SR	BYU Big 12 · #28 of 138	6%	39%	-33	2	16	2.6	at TCU Elo 1607 · W 17-10	52
Donovan Brown	WR	SR	San Diego State G5 Pac-12 · #84 of 138	8%	28%	-19	1	0	0.0	at Texas State Elo 1491 · W 31-29	62
Cam'Ron Lacy	WR	JR	Middle Tennessee G5 Conference USA · #130 of 138	15%	34%	-19	4	25	4.5	at Kansas Elo 1481 · L 0-55	68
JaVonnie Gibson	WR	SR	Cincinnati Big 12 · #72 of 138	4%	23%	-19	1	0	0.0	at Arizona Elo 1646 · L 7-34	48
Sean Wilson	WR	JR	Delaware G5 Conference USA · #102 of 138	6%	25%	-19	2	12	2.2	at Liberty Elo 1725 · L 14-30	25
Omarion Miller	WR	SR	Arizona State Big 12 · #81 of 138	18%	36%	-18	7	90	14.0	at Baylor Elo 1537 · L 19-55	28

🏆 Opponent-adjusted producers

Top six per position by season-to-date points per game once every game is weighted by the opponent's Elo. The shift column shows how far the schedule moved each player.

Player	Pos	Cls	Team	G	Vol/G	Raw PPG	Adj PPG	Raw pct	Adj pct	Shift	SoS pct	Next
Michael Hawkins Jr.	QB	SO	West Virginia Big 12 · #97 of 138	5	16.4	18.6	17.6	99.3	99.3	+0.0	60	W6 vs Arizona (1702)
Trinidad Chambliss	QB	SR	Ole Miss SEC · #17 of 138	4	35.5	16.0	17.3	96.6	98.6	+2.0	5 TOUGH SLATE	W6 at Vanderbilt (1702)
Keelon Russell	QB	SO	Alabama SEC · #6 of 138	5	26.4	15.7	16.9	93.2	98.0	+4.8	4 TOUGH SLATE	W6 vs Georgia (2052)
Lanorris Sellers	QB	JR	South Carolina SEC · #43 of 138	5	30.0	16.3	16.1	97.3	97.3	+0.0	34	W6 at Florida (1669)
Mason McKenzie	QB	JR	Boston College ACC · #91 of 138	5	27.8	16.4	16.0	98.0	96.6	-1.4	43	W7 vs Pittsburgh (1668)
Kamario Taylor	QB	SO	Mississippi State SEC · #51 of 138	5	30.4	15.2	15.8	90.5	95.9	+5.4	2 TOUGH SLATE	W7 at LSU (1868)
Nate Sheppard	RB	SO	Duke ACC · #40 of 138	4	25.2	19.4	18.6	99.7	99.7	+0.0	60	W6 at Georgia Tech (1493)
Jahiem White	RB	SR	North Texas G5 American Athletic · #47 of 138	5	22.2	19.2	18.5	99.5	99.5	+0.0	35	W6 vs Charlotte (1022)
Jamal Roberts	RB	JR	Missouri SEC · #18 of 138	5	23.0	15.0	15.8	97.6	99.2	+1.6	31	W6 vs Texas A&M (1786)
Wayshawn Parker	RB	JR	Utah Big 12 · #8 of 138	4	16.8	15.8	15.7	98.6	98.9	+0.3	47	W6 vs Kansas (1625)
Aiden Flora	RB	SO	Iowa State Big 12 · #35 of 138	5	17.2	15.3	15.1	98.1	98.6	+0.5	32	W6 at BYU (1699)
Dylan Riley	RB	JR	Boise State G5 Pac-12 · #31 of 138	5	23.2	16.0	14.9	98.9	98.4	-0.5	31	W6 at Fresno State (1645)
Jeremiah Smith	WR	JR	Ohio State Big Ten · #2 of 138	5	12.4	25.4	26.7	99.7	99.7	+0.0	19 TOUGH SLATE	W6 vs Maryland (1297)
Anthony Evans III	WR	SR	Mississippi State SEC · #51 of 138	5	10.4	19.6	21.3	98.1	99.4	+1.3	3 TOUGH SLATE	W7 at LSU (1868)
Jesse Legree	WR	FR	Oregon State G5 Pac-12 · #83 of 138	5	8.4	20.4	19.7	99.4	99.0	-0.4	66	W6 vs San Diego State (1417)
Reed Harris	WR	JR	Arizona State Big 12 · #81 of 138	4	10.2	19.0	19.1	97.1	98.7	+1.6	28	W6 vs Hawai'i (1373)
Carlos Hernandez	WR	SR	Wake Forest ACC · #35 of 138	5	10.2	19.6	18.9	98.1	98.4	+0.3	38	W6 at NC State (1517)
Collin Dixon	WR	JR	Illinois Big Ten · #58 of 138	5	10.8	19.6	18.6	98.7	98.1	-0.6	24 TOUGH SLATE	W6 at Michigan State (1449)
Luke Reynolds	TE	JR	Virginia Tech ACC · #64 of 138	5	9.0	15.1	14.2	97.5	97.5	+0.0	60	W6 at California (1335)
Trey'Dez Green	TE	JR	LSU SEC · #20 of 138	3	6.7	12.3	13.3	92.5	95.0	+2.5	8 TOUGH SLATE	W6 at Kentucky (1559)
Caleb Odom	TE	JR	Ole Miss SEC · #17 of 138	3	6.0	11.4	13.0	90.0	92.5	+2.5	0 TOUGH SLATE	W6 at Vanderbilt (1702)
Luke Dehnicke	TE	SO	Northwestern Big Ten · #24 of 138	3	4.3	10.6	12.6	82.5	90.0	+7.5	20 TOUGH SLATE	W6 vs Ball State (1065)
Rocky Beers	TE	SR	Oklahoma SEC · #22 of 138	4	5.5	10.9	12.4	85.0	87.5	+2.5	10 TOUGH SLATE	W6 vs Texas (1930)
Kari Ashley	TE	JR	TCU Big 12 · #52 of 138	5	6.8	12.6	11.4	95.0	85.0	-10.0	55	W7 at Baylor (1643)

⚠️ Padded by the schedule

Top-quartile raw producers whose percentile drops ten or more points once their opponents are accounted for. Real production, softer competition — weigh accordingly.

Player	Pos	Cls	Team	G	Vol/G	Raw PPG	Adj PPG	Raw pct	Adj pct	Shift	SoS pct	Next
Mason Heintschel	QB	SO	Pittsburgh ACC · #39 of 138	5	29.8	13.0	11.0	77.0	62.2	-14.8	80 SOFT SLATE	W6 vs North Carolina (1426)
Kalieb Osborne	QB	FR	UConn G5 FBS Independents · #74 of 138	5	28.0	15.9	13.0	94.6	81.8	-12.8	97 SOFT SLATE	W6 at Temple (1365)
Rickie Collins	QB	JR	Kennesaw State G5 Conference USA · #113 of 138	4	29.0	12.7	11.2	75.7	63.5	-12.2	80 SOFT SLATE	W6 vs Jacksonville State (1435)
Landyn Locke	QB	SO	Sam Houston G5 Conference USA · #131 of 138	4	36.2	13.0	11.6	77.7	66.9	-10.8	53	W6 at Liberty (1725)
CJ Miller	RB	JR	Toledo G5 Mid-American · #53 of 138	5	12.6	8.7	6.8	77.0	66.8	-10.2	95 SOFT SLATE	W6 vs Buffalo (1294)
Caden Creel	QB	JR	Jacksonville State G5 Conference USA · #79 of 138	5	25.0	15.8	13.3	93.9	83.8	-10.1	89 SOFT SLATE	W6 at Kennesaw State (1284)
Kari Ashley	TE	JR	TCU Big 12 · #52 of 138	5	6.8	12.6	11.4	95.0	85.0	-10.0	55	W7 at Baylor (1643)

🔎 Hidden by the schedule

Players whose percentile rises ten or more points after adjustment — solid lines against the toughest slates at their position.

Player	Pos	Cls	Team	G	Vol/G	Raw PPG	Adj PPG	Raw pct	Adj pct	Shift	SoS pct	Next
Emmett Mosley V	WR	JR	Texas SEC · #7 of 138	4	5.0	7.3	8.6	33.4	60.1	+26.7	0 TOUGH SLATE	W6 at Oklahoma (1731)
Rodney Bullard Jr.	WR	SR	Michigan State Big Ten · #76 of 138	5	5.2	7.2	8.1	28.9	52.6	+23.7	1 TOUGH SLATE	W6 vs Illinois (1539)
Cam Coleman	WR	JR	Texas SEC · #7 of 138	4	4.5	7.6	8.5	36.7	59.4	+22.7	0 TOUGH SLATE	W6 at Oklahoma (1731)
Arch Manning	QB	JR	Texas SEC · #7 of 138	4	28.8	11.8	13.5	64.2	85.8	+21.6	0 TOUGH SLATE	W6 at Oklahoma (1731)
Traylon Ray	WR	JR	Ole Miss SEC · #17 of 138	4	4.0	8.0	8.9	42.2	62.7	+20.5	6 TOUGH SLATE	W6 at Vanderbilt (1702)
Jayden Savoury	TE	FR	Michigan State Big Ten · #76 of 138	5	4.8	7.0	7.5	32.5	50.0	+17.5	5 TOUGH SLATE	W6 vs Illinois (1539)
John Mateer	QB	SR	Oklahoma SEC · #22 of 138	4	26.8	12.2	13.4	68.9	84.5	+15.6	1 TOUGH SLATE	W6 vs Texas (1930)
Kylen Evans	WR	SO	Texas State G5 Pac-12 · #68 of 138	4	4.0	7.7	8.2	38.3	53.9	+15.6	5 TOUGH SLATE	W7 vs Colorado State (1233)
Aidan Chiles	QB	SR	Northwestern Big Ten · #24 of 138	4	22.2	11.6	12.2	59.5	75.0	+15.5	3 TOUGH SLATE	W6 vs Ball State (1065)
Ryan Williams	WR	JR	Alabama SEC · #6 of 138	5	4.4	8.2	8.8	46.4	61.7	+15.3	6 TOUGH SLATE	W6 vs Georgia (2052)
DJ Vonnahme	TE	JR	Iowa Big Ten · #11 of 138	4	6.5	8.4	9.7	60.0	75.0	+15.0	2 TOUGH SLATE	W6 at Washington (1734)
Quanell Farrakhan Jr.	WR	SO	Colorado Big 12 · #104 of 138	3	4.7	8.9	9.6	54.5	69.5	+15.0	2 TOUGH SLATE	W7 vs Utah (1918)

Sources: cfbfastR play-by-play player attribution and CollegeFootballData schedules with Elo ratings (FBS games only; FCS opponents carry no rating and are weighted at 1000). Edition generated 2026-10-13 20:05 UTC; earlier weeks stay as published.

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