College Watch List Week 8 - Sleeper Leader

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How this week's list is built

Every FBS skill player with a week 8 stat line is screened. Usage risers gained 12+ share points of their team's targets (WR/TE) or 20+ points of its carries (RB) versus their share over weeks 1–7; usage fallers lost that much from a real prior role. Opponent-adjusted producers scale every game's points by the opponent's pregame Elo rating relative to the FBS average (a 2000-Elo defense counts about 1.3×, an FCS opponent about 0.65×), then rank season-to-date points per game within position among players with at least 3 games. Padded by the schedule and hidden by the schedule are the players whose within-position percentile moves the most once that adjustment is applied — soft-slate producers are flagged there rather than dropped from the page.

Points are PPR without touchdowns (receptions + yards; passing yards and interceptions for QBs) because the play-level source does not chart touchdowns reliably. Chips: G5 outside the SEC / Big Ten / ACC / Big 12 · FCS OPP this week's line came against a non-FBS team · SOFT SLATE / TOUGH SLATE schedule in the easiest / hardest quarter at his position. Editions are frozen when published, so earlier weeks keep the lists they were published with.

What do these columns mean?

Share: This week's share of his team's targets (WR/TE) or carries (RB).
Prior / Δ: His share over the earlier weeks of the season and the change in share points.
Vol: Targets or carries this week.
Yds / Pts: Receiving + rushing yards this week, and PPR points without touchdowns.
Opponent: This week's opponent, its pregame Elo and the result.
Raw PPG / Adj PPG: Season-to-date points per game, before and after the opponent-strength adjustment.
Raw pct / Adj pct: Within-position percentile of each (100 = best).
Shift: Adjusted percentile minus raw percentile. Negative = the schedule flattered him; positive = it hid him.
SoS pct: Schedule percentile among his position peers (100 = easiest slate), from the average pregame Elo of the opponents he has faced.
Team: Conference, and the team's current Elo rank among FBS teams.
Next: Next scheduled opponent and its Elo.

📈 Usage risers

Biggest gains in target or carry share versus weeks 1–7.

Player	Pos	Cls	Team	Share	Prior	Δ	Vol	Yds	Pts	Opponent	SoS pct
Kenneth Williams	RB	JR	Michigan State Big Ten · #80 of 138	71%	2%	+69	17	76	10.6	at UCLA Elo 1690 · L 10-28	4 TOUGH SLATE
Cardae Mack	RB	FR	Arizona State Big 12 · #73 of 138	76%	21%	+55	26	166	17.6	at Kansas State Elo 1637 · W 28-17	20 TOUGH SLATE
Connor Lair	RB	SR	Missouri State G5 Conference USA · #123 of 138	68%	18%	+51	15	96	12.6	at Delaware Elo 1325 · L 38-61	66
CJ Miller	RB	JR	Toledo G5 Mid-American · #59 of 138	79%	31%	+47	33	196	20.6	at Western Michigan Elo 1486 · W 45-38	90 SOFT SLATE
Isaiah Myers	WR	SR	Missouri State G5 Conference USA · #123 of 138	47%	18%	+28	14	242	35.2	at Delaware Elo 1325 · L 38-61	70
Aveion Chenault	WR	SO	Western Michigan G5 Mid-American · #71 of 138	50%	24%	+26	8	105	16.5	at Toledo Elo 1548 · L 38-45	94 SOFT SLATE
Dominic Kelley	RB	SO	Nevada G5 Mountain West · #79 of 138	83%	42%	+40	24	101	12.1	at San José State Elo 1380 · W 28-13	88 SOFT SLATE
Justin Stevenson	WR	SR	North Texas G5 American Athletic · #36 of 138	42%	18%	+24	8	209	28.9	at Navy Elo 1493 · W 49-39	58
Javon Tracy	WR	SR	Minnesota Big Ten · #82 of 138	44%	21%	+23	8	73	14.3	at Iowa Elo 1853 · W 13-10	39
Ahmad Miller	RB	JR	Syracuse ACC · #104 of 138	64%	25%	+38	30	138	15.8	at North Carolina Elo 1470 · W 31-30	19 TOUGH SLATE
Jamari Person	WR	SR	Liberty G5 Conference USA · #18 of 138	38%	15%	+23	6	72	11.2	at Kennesaw State Elo 1288 · W 34-6	–
Jordan Gant	RB	SR	Akron G5 Mid-American · #138 of 138	82%	45%	+38	28	180	21.0	at Kent State Elo 1007 · L 20-35	98 SOFT SLATE

📉 Usage fallers

Biggest drops in target or carry share from a real prior role.

Player	Pos	Cls	Team	Share	Prior	Δ	Vol	Yds	Pts	Opponent	SoS pct
CJ Baxter Jr.	RB	JR	Kentucky SEC · #39 of 138	3%	49%	-46	1	8	1.8	at Vanderbilt Elo 1577 · W 34-17	0 TOUGH SLATE
Tyrell Henry	WR	SR	Wisconsin Big Ten · #31 of 138	8%	32%	-24	1	-3	0.7	at USC Elo 1804 · W 24-7	10 TOUGH SLATE
Patrick Overmyer	TE	JR	Houston Big 12 · #44 of 138	3%	23%	-20	1	0	1.0	at Utah Elo 1901 · L 13-21	40
Kyson Brown	RB	JR	Arizona State Big 12 · #73 of 138	3%	34%	-32	1	6	0.6	at Kansas State Elo 1637 · W 28-17	22 TOUGH SLATE
Evan Dickens	RB	JR	Boston College ACC · #74 of 138	2%	33%	-31	1	3	0.3	at Georgia Tech Elo 1478 · W 49-27	40
Herschel Turner	RB	JR	Nevada G5 Mountain West · #79 of 138	0%	30%	-30	0	40	6.0	at San José State Elo 1380 · W 28-13	88 SOFT SLATE
Tony Diaz	WR	JR	Iowa Big Ten · #11 of 138	9%	27%	-18	3	66	7.6	at Minnesota Elo 1427 · L 10-13	18 TOUGH SLATE
Luke Hutchison	WR	SR	Navy G5 American Athletic · #70 of 138	0%	17%	-17	0	-10	-1.0	at North Texas Elo 1669 · L 39-49	–
Dawson Pendergrass	RB	SR	Baylor Big 12 · #45 of 138	12%	41%	-29	4	4	0.4	at Kansas Elo 1594 · L 24-25	44
Tyler King	WR	SR	New Mexico State G5 Conference USA · #115 of 138	9%	26%	-17	3	10	4.0	at Sam Houston Elo 1104 · W 30-24	93 SOFT SLATE
Braden Pegan	WR	JR	Utah Big 12 · #10 of 138	9%	26%	-16	2	37	5.7	at Houston Elo 1610 · W 21-13	40
Ethan Ervin	RB	SO	Florida Atlantic G5 American Athletic · #117 of 138	15%	42%	-27	6	17	2.7	at Rice Elo 1128 · W 51-49	84 SOFT SLATE

🏆 Opponent-adjusted producers

Top six per position by season-to-date points per game once every game is weighted by the opponent's Elo. The shift column shows how far the schedule moved each player.

Player	Pos	Cls	Team	G	Vol/G	Raw PPG	Adj PPG	Raw pct	Adj pct	Shift	SoS pct	Next
Michael Hawkins Jr.	QB	SO	West Virginia Big 12 · #94 of 138	8	17.0	18.9	18.6	99.4	99.4	+0.0	39	W10 at Texas Tech (1825)
Lanorris Sellers	QB	JR	South Carolina SEC · #34 of 138	7	27.1	16.3	17.0	98.8	98.8	+0.0	20 TOUGH SLATE	W9 at Oklahoma (1719)
Byrum Brown	QB	SR	Auburn SEC · #37 of 138	7	29.9	14.8	16.9	92.8	98.2	+5.4	1 TOUGH SLATE	W9 at Ole Miss (1923)
Avery Johnson	QB	SR	Kansas State Big 12 · #49 of 138	6	28.5	16.1	16.2	97.0	97.6	+0.6	37	W9 at Colorado (1265)
Mason McKenzie	QB	JR	Boston College ACC · #74 of 138	7	26.3	16.2	16.0	98.2	97.0	-1.2	40	W9 at Duke (1633)
Jackson Arnold	QB	SR	UNLV G5 Mountain West · #69 of 138	6	20.7	16.2	16.0	97.6	96.4	-1.2	26	W9 vs Northern Illinois (1065)
Nate Sheppard	RB	SO	Duke ACC · #40 of 138	7	26.1	20.4	19.8	99.8	99.8	+0.0	47	W9 vs Boston College (1468)
Jahiem White	RB	SR	North Texas G5 American Athletic · #36 of 138	7	21.1	19.9	18.6	99.5	99.5	+0.0	58	W9 vs Florida Atlantic (1239)
Jamal Roberts	RB	JR	Missouri SEC · #24 of 138	7	25.1	15.6	17.1	98.0	99.3	+1.3	13 TOUGH SLATE	W9 at Arkansas (1515)
Caleb Hawkins	RB	SO	Oklahoma State Big 12 · #76 of 138	7	24.9	17.8	17.1	99.3	99.0	-0.3	52	W9 at Iowa State (1551)
Dylan Riley	RB	JR	Boise State G5 Pac-12 · #28 of 138	7	21.9	17.2	16.6	99.0	98.8	-0.2	31	W9 vs Texas State (1565)
Wayshawn Parker	RB	JR	Utah Big 12 · #10 of 138	7	17.6	15.9	16.1	98.5	98.5	+0.0	40	W9 at Cincinnati (1532)
Malachi Toney	WR	SO	Miami ACC · #5 of 138	7	10.6	23.7	23.2	99.7	99.7	+0.0	48	W9 at North Carolina (1461)
Jeremiah Smith	WR	JR	Ohio State Big Ten · #3 of 138	7	9.1	21.6	22.9	99.4	99.4	+0.0	14 TOUGH SLATE	W9 at USC (1752)
Jesse Legree	WR	FR	Oregon State G5 Pac-12 · #47 of 138	7	8.7	21.5	20.7	99.0	99.0	+0.0	66	W9 at Fresno State (1628)
Umari Hatcher	WR	SR	Syracuse ACC · #104 of 138	7	10.9	20.9	20.6	98.7	98.7	+0.0	33	W9 vs SMU (1759)
Carlos Hernandez	WR	SR	Wake Forest ACC · #20 of 138	6	9.0	20.3	19.7	98.4	98.4	+0.0	42	W9 vs Virginia (1581)
Jordan Dwyer	WR	SR	TCU Big 12 · #49 of 138	3	9.3	19.1	18.9	97.7	98.1	+0.4	32	W9 vs Kansas (1595)
Trey'Dez Green	TE	JR	LSU SEC · #6 of 138	3	6.3	12.4	13.4	92.5	97.5	+5.0	5 TOUGH SLATE	W10 vs Alabama (1939)
Luke Dehnicke	TE	SO	Northwestern Big Ten · #22 of 138	3	4.3	10.6	12.6	85.0	95.0	+10.0	32	W9 at Oregon (1787)
Luke Reynolds	TE	JR	Virginia Tech ACC · #64 of 138	8	7.4	12.7	12.0	97.5	92.5	-5.0	60	W10 at SMU (1759)
Jamari Johnson	TE	JR	Oregon Big Ten · #17 of 138	5	5.8	10.6	11.9	85.0	90.0	+5.0	5 TOUGH SLATE	W9 vs Northwestern (1756)
Caleb Odom	TE	JR	Ole Miss SEC · #8 of 138	5	6.2	10.0	11.9	77.5	87.5	+10.0	0 TOUGH SLATE	W9 vs Auburn (1669)
Willie Rodriguez	TE	JR	Kentucky SEC · #39 of 138	6	7.2	9.9	11.5	72.5	85.0	+12.5	2 TOUGH SLATE	W10 at Tennessee (1829)

⚠️ Padded by the schedule

Top-quartile raw producers whose percentile drops ten or more points once their opponents are accounted for. Real production, softer competition — weigh accordingly.

Player	Pos	Cls	Team	G	Vol/G	Raw PPG	Adj PPG	Raw pct	Adj pct	Shift	SoS pct	Next
Kalieb Osborne	QB	FR	UConn G5 FBS Independents · #67 of 138	7	22.1	15.1	12.4	94.6	77.1	-17.5	96 SOFT SLATE	W9 at Air Force (1441)
Ty Harding	WR	SR	Massachusetts G5 Mid-American · #129 of 138	5	6.8	12.1	9.6	82.5	65.7	-16.8	100 SOFT SLATE	W10 vs Ball State (1098)
Mason Heintschel	QB	SO	Pittsburgh ACC · #52 of 138	5	28.0	12.8	10.9	77.7	63.9	-13.8	84 SOFT SLATE	W9 vs Georgia Tech (1412)
Gio Richardson	WR	SO	Arizona Big 12 · #15 of 138	3	5.7	11.2	9.5	75.4	62.8	-12.6	60	W9 at Texas Tech (1825)
Kari Ashley	TE	JR	TCU Big 12 · #49 of 138	7	6.7	12.4	11.4	95.0	82.5	-12.5	58	W9 vs Kansas (1595)
Eli Finley	TE	SR	Louisiana Tech G5 Sun Belt · #78 of 138	7	6.4	12.2	11.0	90.0	77.5	-12.5	88 SOFT SLATE	W9 at South Alabama (1354)
Matthew Coleman	WR	SR	Sacramento State G5 Mid-American · #137 of 138	7	6.6	11.4	9.6	77.0	64.7	-12.3	94 SOFT SLATE	W9 vs Kent State (1026)
Tyler Hughes	QB	SR	Wyoming G5 Mountain West · #97 of 138	8	17.1	14.3	12.5	89.8	78.3	-11.5	81 SOFT SLATE	W10 at UNLV (1489)

🔎 Hidden by the schedule

Players whose percentile rises ten or more points after adjustment — solid lines against the toughest slates at their position.

Player	Pos	Cls	Team	G	Vol/G	Raw PPG	Adj PPG	Raw pct	Adj pct	Shift	SoS pct	Next
Kenny Minchey	QB	JR	Kentucky SEC · #39 of 138	6	29.0	10.4	12.2	49.4	74.1	+24.7	0 TOUGH SLATE	W10 at Tennessee (1829)
DJ Miller	WR	SO	Kentucky SEC · #39 of 138	5	6.2	8.0	9.6	41.7	64.1	+22.4	0 TOUGH SLATE	W10 at Tennessee (1829)
Emmett Mosley V	WR	JR	Texas SEC · #9 of 138	7	4.3	7.6	8.8	35.6	57.3	+21.7	1 TOUGH SLATE	W9 vs Mississippi State (1555)
Traylon Ray	WR	JR	Ole Miss SEC · #8 of 138	6	4.2	7.5	8.5	33.7	55.0	+21.3	4 TOUGH SLATE	W9 vs Auburn (1669)
Nic Anderson	WR	SR	Kentucky SEC · #39 of 138	4	4.8	7.8	9.0	38.2	58.9	+20.7	1 TOUGH SLATE	W10 at Tennessee (1829)
Cam Coleman	WR	JR	Texas SEC · #9 of 138	7	4.4	7.6	8.6	35.9	55.7	+19.8	1 TOUGH SLATE	W9 vs Mississippi State (1555)
Arch Manning	QB	JR	Texas SEC · #9 of 138	7	24.1	11.5	13.3	68.1	84.9	+16.8	1 TOUGH SLATE	W9 vs Mississippi State (1555)
Chrishon Mccray	WR	SR	Michigan State Big Ten · #80 of 138	8	5.8	7.5	8.2	34.3	50.5	+16.2	6 TOUGH SLATE	W10 at Michigan (1734)
Austin Simmons	QB	JR	Missouri SEC · #24 of 138	7	26.1	10.2	10.8	47.6	63.3	+15.7	10 TOUGH SLATE	W9 at Arkansas (1515)
Trinidad Chambliss	QB	SR	Ole Miss SEC · #8 of 138	6	33.5	11.4	12.7	64.5	80.1	+15.6	4 TOUGH SLATE	W9 vs Auburn (1669)
Jason Patterson	RB	SO	Kentucky SEC · #39 of 138	6	8.8	4.7	5.5	36.8	52.3	+15.5	0 TOUGH SLATE	W10 at Tennessee (1829)
Chas Nimrod	WR	SR	Auburn SEC · #37 of 138	7	7.3	9.6	10.8	60.5	75.7	+15.2	2 TOUGH SLATE	W9 at Ole Miss (1923)

Sources: cfbfastR play-by-play player attribution and CollegeFootballData schedules with Elo ratings (FBS games only; FCS opponents carry no rating and are weighted at 1000). Edition generated 2026-11-04 20:39 UTC; earlier weeks stay as published.

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