College Watch List Week 6 - Sleeper Leader

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How this week's list is built

Every FBS skill player with a week 6 stat line is screened. Usage risers gained 12+ share points of their team's targets (WR/TE) or 20+ points of its carries (RB) versus their share over weeks 1–5; usage fallers lost that much from a real prior role. Opponent-adjusted producers scale every game's points by the opponent's pregame Elo rating relative to the FBS average (a 2000-Elo defense counts about 1.3×, an FCS opponent about 0.65×), then rank season-to-date points per game within position among players with at least 3 games. Padded by the schedule and hidden by the schedule are the players whose within-position percentile moves the most once that adjustment is applied — soft-slate producers are flagged there rather than dropped from the page.

Points are PPR without touchdowns (receptions + yards; passing yards and interceptions for QBs) because the play-level source does not chart touchdowns reliably. Chips: G5 outside the SEC / Big Ten / ACC / Big 12 · FCS OPP this week's line came against a non-FBS team · SOFT SLATE / TOUGH SLATE schedule in the easiest / hardest quarter at his position. Editions are frozen when published, so earlier weeks keep the lists they were published with.

What do these columns mean?

Share: This week's share of his team's targets (WR/TE) or carries (RB).
Prior / Δ: His share over the earlier weeks of the season and the change in share points.
Vol: Targets or carries this week.
Yds / Pts: Receiving + rushing yards this week, and PPR points without touchdowns.
Opponent: This week's opponent, its pregame Elo and the result.
Raw PPG / Adj PPG: Season-to-date points per game, before and after the opponent-strength adjustment.
Raw pct / Adj pct: Within-position percentile of each (100 = best).
Shift: Adjusted percentile minus raw percentile. Negative = the schedule flattered him; positive = it hid him.
SoS pct: Schedule percentile among his position peers (100 = easiest slate), from the average pregame Elo of the opponents he has faced.
Team: Conference, and the team's current Elo rank among FBS teams.
Next: Next scheduled opponent and its Elo.

📈 Usage risers

Biggest gains in target or carry share versus weeks 1–5.

Player	Pos	Cls	Team	Share	Prior	Δ	Vol	Yds	Pts	Opponent	SoS pct
Jordan Clark	WR	FR	Rice G5 American Athletic · #126 of 138	75%	22%	+53	9	68	10.8	at East Carolina Elo 1456 · L 12-28	19 TOUGH SLATE
Jacory Barney Jr.	WR	JR	Nebraska Big Ten · #19 of 138	76%	39%	+37	13	123	21.3	at Indiana Elo 2114 · L 17-20	43
Ashten Emory	RB	SO	California ACC · #98 of 138	79%	22%	+58	19	81	12.1	at Virginia Tech Elo 1501 · W 25-20	66
Jaylon Hawkins	WR	FR	San Diego State G5 Pac-12 · #114 of 138	45%	12%	+34	5	43	5.3	at Oregon State Elo 1418 · L 14-66	–
Tyrese Woodgett	RB	SO	Georgia Southern G5 Sun Belt · #93 of 138	55%	8%	+47	11	65	6.5	at James Madison Elo 1821 · L 24-27	–
Jaziun Patterson	RB	SR	Michigan State Big Ten · #77 of 138	71%	28%	+43	17	119	14.9	at Illinois Elo 1539 · L 37-38	13 TOUGH SLATE
Gary Givens III	WR	JR	Nevada G5 Mountain West · #81 of 138	41%	17%	+24	9	46	9.6	at UTEP Elo 984 · W 30-13	97 SOFT SLATE
Wayne Harris	WR	SO	Kent State G5 Mid-American · #134 of 138	44%	20%	+24	15	164	27.4	at Western Michigan Elo 1457 · L 7-38	51
Terrell Crosby Jr.	WR	SR	Toledo G5 Mid-American · #59 of 138	35%	12%	+24	12	69	14.9	at Buffalo Elo 1294 · L 8-23	97 SOFT SLATE
Riley Neer	WR	SO	Ohio G5 Mid-American · #101 of 138	53%	30%	+23	9	59	9.9	at Central Michigan Elo 1248 · W 31-14	91 SOFT SLATE
Ty Harding	WR	SR	Massachusetts G5 Mid-American · #130 of 138	43%	20%	+23	15	91	18.1	at Miami (OH) Elo 1253 · L 19-20	98 SOFT SLATE
Dwight Phillips Jr.	RB	JR	Georgia SEC · #4 of 138	52%	13%	+38	17	126	13.6	at Alabama Elo 1991 · W 20-17	14 TOUGH SLATE

📉 Usage fallers

Biggest drops in target or carry share from a real prior role.

Player	Pos	Cls	Team	Share	Prior	Δ	Vol	Yds	Pts	Opponent	SoS pct
Donovan Olugbode	WR	SO	Missouri SEC · #14 of 138	4%	26%	-22	1	0	0.0	at Texas A&M Elo 1786 · W 27-6	20 TOUGH SLATE
Amareon Blue	RB	SO	Eastern Michigan G5 Mid-American · #120 of 138	3%	36%	-32	1	6	0.6	at Akron Elo 862 · W 25-23	91 SOFT SLATE
Steven Robinson	RB	JR	Southern Miss G5 Sun Belt · #125 of 138	25%	57%	-32	6	63	9.3	at Troy Elo 1395 · L 34-55	58
DJ Epps	WR	SR	West Virginia Big 12 · #102 of 138	11%	30%	-19	3	7	0.7	at Arizona Elo 1702 · L 31-52	47
Matt Long	WR	JR	Air Force G5 Mountain West · #75 of 138	0%	19%	-19	0	67	6.7	at Northern Illinois Elo 1194 · W 28-7	87 SOFT SLATE
Jeremiah Melvin	WR	JR	East Carolina G5 American Athletic · #74 of 138	19%	37%	-18	6	13	2.3	at Rice Elo 1184 · W 28-12	–
Da'Realyst Clark	WR	SR	Kent State G5 Mid-American · #134 of 138	6%	24%	-18	2	7	1.7	at Western Michigan Elo 1457 · L 7-38	51
Anthony Brown	WR	SR	Tulane G5 American Athletic · #62 of 138	12%	30%	-18	3	26	4.6	at Army Elo 1522 · L 17-20	32
DJ Scott	RB	JR	North Dakota State G5 Mountain West · #44 of 138	8%	37%	-29	3	13	2.3	at UNLV Elo 1494 · L 7-13	74
Khamani Alexander	RB	SO	Charlotte G5 American Athletic · #137 of 138	7%	36%	-29	2	15	1.5	at North Texas Elo 1629 · L 10-50	39
Adjatay Dabbs	WR	JR	Toledo G5 Mid-American · #59 of 138	12%	29%	-17	4	35	5.5	at Buffalo Elo 1294 · L 8-23	94 SOFT SLATE
Donovan Hamilton	WR	SO	Ball State G5 Mid-American · #133 of 138	8%	25%	-17	3	53	7.3	at Northwestern Elo 1720 · L 14-45	28

🏆 Opponent-adjusted producers

Top six per position by season-to-date points per game once every game is weighted by the opponent's Elo. The shift column shows how far the schedule moved each player.

Player	Pos	Cls	Team	G	Vol/G	Raw PPG	Adj PPG	Raw pct	Adj pct	Shift	SoS pct	Next
Michael Hawkins Jr.	QB	SO	West Virginia Big 12 · #102 of 138	6	18.3	18.5	18.1	99.4	99.4	+0.0	44	W7 vs Cincinnati (1469)
Keelon Russell	QB	SO	Alabama SEC · #6 of 138	6	27.3	15.6	17.5	94.8	98.7	+3.9	1 TOUGH SLATE	W7 at Tennessee (1776)
Lanorris Sellers	QB	JR	South Carolina SEC · #30 of 138	6	30.8	16.0	16.2	98.1	98.1	+0.0	30	W8 vs Tennessee (1776)
Mason McKenzie	QB	JR	Boston College ACC · #91 of 138	5	27.8	16.4	16.0	98.7	97.4	-1.3	50	W7 vs Pittsburgh (1645)
Kamario Taylor	QB	SO	Mississippi State SEC · #48 of 138	5	30.4	15.2	15.8	93.5	96.8	+3.3	4 TOUGH SLATE	W7 at LSU (1859)
Trinidad Chambliss	QB	SR	Ole Miss SEC · #9 of 138	5	34.4	14.3	15.5	88.3	96.1	+7.8	6 TOUGH SLATE	W7 vs Missouri (1814)
Nate Sheppard	RB	SO	Duke ACC · #39 of 138	5	26.8	20.7	19.9	99.7	99.7	+0.0	55	W7 vs North Carolina (1449)
Jamal Roberts	RB	JR	Missouri SEC · #14 of 138	6	25.7	16.8	18.3	98.7	99.5	+0.8	20 TOUGH SLATE	W7 at Ole Miss (1868)
Wayshawn Parker	RB	JR	Utah Big 12 · #7 of 138	5	16.8	17.1	17.3	98.9	99.2	+0.3	41	W7 at Colorado (1325)
Jahiem White	RB	SR	North Texas G5 American Athletic · #36 of 138	6	20.8	18.7	17.2	99.5	98.9	-0.6	57	W8 at Navy (1495)
Dylan Riley	RB	JR	Boise State G5 Pac-12 · #31 of 138	6	23.2	17.6	17.1	99.2	98.7	-0.5	27	W8 at Washington State (1476)
Cam Cook	RB	SR	West Virginia Big 12 · #102 of 138	6	27.0	15.6	15.3	98.1	98.4	+0.3	46	W7 vs Cincinnati (1469)
Jeremiah Smith	WR	JR	Ohio State Big Ten · #3 of 138	6	11.2	23.4	24.2	99.7	99.7	+0.0	33	W7 at Indiana (2098)
Anthony Evans III	WR	SR	Mississippi State SEC · #48 of 138	5	10.4	19.6	21.3	98.4	99.4	+1.0	4 TOUGH SLATE	W7 at LSU (1859)
Jesse Legree	WR	FR	Oregon State G5 Pac-12 · #55 of 138	6	8.8	21.9	21.0	99.4	99.1	-0.3	65	W7 vs Washington State (1476)
Carlos Hernandez	WR	SR	Wake Forest ACC · #28 of 138	6	10.7	20.3	19.7	99.1	98.7	-0.4	41	W7 at California (1347)
Malachi Toney	WR	SO	Miami ACC · #5 of 138	5	9.6	20.3	18.6	98.7	98.4	-0.3	72	W7 vs Florida State (1598)
Reed Harris	WR	JR	Arizona State Big 12 · #75 of 138	5	10.0	18.6	18.4	97.2	98.1	+0.9	40	W7 at Texas Tech (1862)
Luke Reynolds	TE	JR	Virginia Tech ACC · #67 of 138	6	9.0	14.2	13.3	97.7	97.7	+0.0	79 SOFT SLATE	W7 vs Georgia Tech (1496)
Trey'Dez Green	TE	JR	LSU SEC · #11 of 138	3	6.7	12.3	13.3	93.0	95.3	+2.3	12 TOUGH SLATE	W7 vs Mississippi State (1612)
Luke Dehnicke	TE	SO	Northwestern Big Ten · #23 of 138	3	4.3	10.6	12.6	86.0	93.0	+7.0	28	W7 at Michigan State (1452)
Patrick Overmyer	TE	JR	Houston Big 12 · #48 of 138	6	8.2	12.2	12.3	90.7	90.7	+0.0	42	W7 vs Oklahoma State (1373)
Rocky Beers	TE	SR	Oklahoma SEC · #20 of 138	5	5.2	10.1	11.7	81.4	88.4	+7.0	5 TOUGH SLATE	W7 vs Kentucky (1568)
Caleb Odom	TE	JR	Ole Miss SEC · #9 of 138	4	5.8	10.2	11.7	83.7	86.0	+2.3	0 TOUGH SLATE	W7 vs Missouri (1814)

⚠️ Padded by the schedule

Top-quartile raw producers whose percentile drops ten or more points once their opponents are accounted for. Real production, softer competition — weigh accordingly.

Player	Pos	Cls	Team	G	Vol/G	Raw PPG	Adj PPG	Raw pct	Adj pct	Shift	SoS pct	Next
Will Crowder	QB	SR	Troy G5 Sun Belt · #83 of 138	5	30.6	13.3	11.3	81.8	63.6	-18.2	90 SOFT SLATE	W7 at Louisiana (1439)
Mason Heintschel	QB	SO	Pittsburgh ACC · #40 of 138	5	29.8	13.0	11.0	77.9	59.7	-18.2	80 SOFT SLATE	W7 at Boston College (1381)
Ty Harding	WR	SR	Massachusetts G5 Mid-American · #130 of 138	6	6.5	11.7	9.4	80.9	65.8	-15.1	98 SOFT SLATE	W7 at Buffalo (1363)
Kari Ashley	TE	JR	TCU Big 12 · #52 of 138	5	6.8	12.6	11.4	95.3	81.4	-13.9	70	W7 at Baylor (1643)
Kalieb Osborne	QB	FR	UConn G5 FBS Independents · #69 of 138	6	27.3	15.4	12.8	94.2	81.8	-12.4	93 SOFT SLATE	W8 vs Massachusetts (1129)
TJ Engleman	RB	JR	East Carolina G5 American Athletic · #74 of 138	5	10.2	9.4	7.1	81.5	69.8	-11.7	85 SOFT SLATE	W7 at UAB (1362)
Matthew Coleman	WR	SR	Sacramento State G5 Mid-American · #132 of 138	6	9.7	12.8	10.7	87.5	76.2	-11.3	93 SOFT SLATE	W7 vs Ohio (1339)
Gio Richardson	WR	SO	Arizona Big 12 · #26 of 138	3	5.7	11.2	9.5	77.4	66.1	-11.3	57	W8 vs Iowa State (1643)
Makai Jackson	WR	SR	Liberty G5 Conference USA · #21 of 138	6	5.0	12.2	10.4	84.6	74.3	-10.3	92 SOFT SLATE	W8 at Kennesaw State (1290)
Adjatay Dabbs	WR	JR	Toledo G5 Mid-American · #59 of 138	6	8.2	11.5	9.7	79.3	69.0	-10.3	94 SOFT SLATE	W7 at Eastern Michigan (1235)
CJ Miller	RB	JR	Toledo G5 Mid-American · #59 of 138	6	12.3	8.4	6.7	75.9	65.9	-10.0	95 SOFT SLATE	W7 at Eastern Michigan (1235)

🔎 Hidden by the schedule

Players whose percentile rises ten or more points after adjustment — solid lines against the toughest slates at their position.

Player	Pos	Cls	Team	G	Vol/G	Raw PPG	Adj PPG	Raw pct	Adj pct	Shift	SoS pct	Next
Emmett Mosley V	WR	JR	Texas SEC · #8 of 138	5	5.4	7.7	9.0	38.6	63.0	+24.4	0 TOUGH SLATE	W7 vs Florida (1619)
DJ Vonnahme	TE	JR	Iowa Big Ten · #12 of 138	5	5.6	8.0	9.2	51.2	74.4	+23.2	2 TOUGH SLATE	W8 at Minnesota (1427)
John Mateer	QB	SR	Oklahoma SEC · #20 of 138	5	26.6	11.3	12.6	57.1	79.9	+22.8	1 TOUGH SLATE	W7 vs Kentucky (1568)
Rodney Bullard Jr.	WR	SR	Michigan State Big Ten · #77 of 138	6	5.0	7.3	8.0	30.7	53.0	+22.3	3 TOUGH SLATE	W7 vs Northwestern (1731)
Arch Manning	QB	JR	Texas SEC · #8 of 138	5	28.8	12.2	13.9	69.5	89.0	+19.5	0 TOUGH SLATE	W7 vs Florida (1619)
Jayden Savoury	TE	FR	Michigan State Big Ten · #77 of 138	6	5.2	7.6	8.2	41.9	60.5	+18.6	14 TOUGH SLATE	W7 vs Northwestern (1731)
Bryce Underwood	QB	SO	Michigan Big Ten · #26 of 138	5	22.8	11.0	11.8	53.2	71.4	+18.2	10 TOUGH SLATE	W7 vs Penn State (1802)
Ryan Williams	WR	JR	Alabama SEC · #6 of 138	6	5.0	8.0	8.9	43.6	61.4	+17.8	2 TOUGH SLATE	W7 at Tennessee (1776)
Davis Warren	QB	SR	Stanford ACC · #128 of 138	6	32.3	9.7	10.5	39.0	55.8	+16.8	2 TOUGH SLATE	W7 vs Elon (1000)
Traylon Ray	WR	JR	Ole Miss SEC · #9 of 138	5	4.6	8.1	9.0	46.1	62.7	+16.6	7 TOUGH SLATE	W7 vs Missouri (1814)
Kylen Evans	WR	SO	Texas State G5 Pac-12 · #67 of 138	4	4.0	7.7	8.2	38.6	54.5	+15.9	6 TOUGH SLATE	W7 vs Colorado State (1233)
Caden High	WR	SR	Stanford ACC · #128 of 138	5	6.4	10.5	12.1	70.8	86.5	+15.7	1 TOUGH SLATE	W7 vs Elon (1000)

Sources: cfbfastR play-by-play player attribution and CollegeFootballData schedules with Elo ratings (FBS games only; FCS opponents carry no rating and are weighted at 1000). Edition generated 2026-10-21 18:23 UTC; earlier weeks stay as published.

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