Watch List - Sleeper Leader

Offseason Week 1

How this list is built

The correlation analysis showed that role metrics (targets, air-yards share) are the stickiest and most predictive things a player carries into a new season, while efficiency spikes (RYOE, TD rate) mean-revert. So each screen compares what a player's 2025 role said he should score against what he actually scored (percentiles among qualified players), then checks today's depth chart and rookie draft capital to see whether the opportunity survived the offseason. Depth charts refresh weekly in-season — this page sharpens after the first games.

Chips: SECURE top of the depth chart, no premium rookie added · ROOKIE PRESSURE still #1 but a round 1–2 pick arrived · BEHIND N not the starter today · OFF CHART not on any depth chart · MOVED changed teams since 2025. This is a screen, not a verdict — age, injury, coaching and contracts aren't factored.

What do these columns mean?

Role pct: Role percentile — the average of a player's targets percentile and air-yards-share percentile among qualified players. The sticky, predictive half of his profile.
PPG pct: His PPR points-per-game percentile among the same pool (regular season, min 6 games).
Gap: Role pct minus PPG pct. Positive = his role says he should have scored more (buy signal); negative = scoring outran the role (regression signal).
Tgt: Targets — passes thrown his way, regular season.
AY Share%: Air Yards Share — his share of the team's intended air yards. The stickiest role metric we measured (r ≈ 0.9 year over year).
PPG: PPR fantasy points per game, regular season.
Att / Att pct: Rush attempts and their percentile among qualified backs. Volume is sticky.
RYOE/Att: Rush Yards Over Expected per attempt — actual yards minus the tracking model's expectation, per carry. The least stable metric we measured; extremes mean-revert.
RYOE pct: RYOE/Att percentile among qualified backs.
CPOE: Completion % Over Expected — accuracy beyond what separation, depth and pressure predict.
SoS pct: Strength-of-schedule percentile among his position peers, from the Defenses page's ratings: 100 = easiest slate, 0 = toughest. Direction matters per list — a buy candidate who produced against a TOUGH SLATE earned it the hard way (stronger buy); a regression candidate who feasted on a SOFT SLATE is more fragile (stronger warning).
Current opportunity: Today's depth chart slot (refreshed weekly), team changes, players listed ahead, and rookies the team drafted at the position. Listed depth charts can lag camp reality — treat as a starting point, and expect this to sharpen once real snaps are played.

📈 Receiving — role ahead of scoring

Big 2025 role, scoring didn't follow. If the role survived the offseason, the points usually come.

Player	Pos	Role pct	PPG pct	Gap	Tgt	AY Share%	PPG	SoS pct	Current opportunity
Jerry Jeudy	WR	79.0	8.6	+70.4	106	36.4	7.1	78	CLE WR1 ROOKIE PRESSURE drafted: KC Concepcion (R1), Denzel Boston (R2) AI: CAUTIONStill the Browns' listed WR1 with positive camp reports, but Cleveland spent R1 (KC Concepcion) and R2 (Denzel Boston) picks on WRs who are both impressing and slotted directly behind him — his 36% air-yards share is unlikely to repeat even if the WR1 title holds.
Elic Ayomanor	WR	58.1	10.8	+47.3	89	28.1	7.28	21 TOUGH SLATE	TEN WR5 BEHIND 4 ahead: Carnell Tate, Wan'Dale Robinson, Calvin Ridley, Chimere Dike drafted: Carnell Tate (R1) AI: BELONGSThe listed WR5 slot is stale: Ayomanor was a star of Titans camp, delivered big preseason plays with Cam Ward, and is listed as a starter on the Week 1 unofficial depth chart — with Calvin Ridley sent to the bench.
Adonai Mitchell	WR	43.5	1.1	+42.5	74	25.5	5.49	64	NYJ WR2 BEHIND 1 ahead: Garrett Wilson drafted: Omar Cooper (R1) AI: BELONGSJets' current depth chart has Garrett Wilson, Mitchell, then rookie Omar Cooper Jr., with the team publicly confident in Mitchell as the WR2 — his downfield role behind Wilson is intact.
Darnell Mooney	WR	40.3	0.0	+40.3	72	24.9	5.49	13 TOUGH SLATE	NYG WR3 MOVED BEHIND 2 ahead: Malik Nabers, Malachi Fields drafted: Malachi Fields (R3) AI: CAUTIONReal job — first-team reps with Jaxson Dart as the Giants' lead slot receiver, and Calvin Austin's torn ACL frees snaps — but he's behind target-hog Malik Nabers and Darius Slayton, so his 2025 Atlanta deep-threat air-yards role won't fully carry over.
Emeka Egbuka	WR	88.7	51.6	+37.1	127	35.5	11.51	8 TOUGH SLATE	TB WR1 SECURE AI: BELONGSWith Mike Evans now in San Francisco, Egbuka is Tampa Bay's undisputed WR1 — the role improved. Caveat: an August toe sprain has him day-to-day, but the team is optimistic he plays Week 1.
Justin Jefferson	WR	93.0	57.0	+36.0	141	38.4	11.85	95	MIN WR1 SECURE AI: BELONGSMild camp hamstring strain fully resolved — back at practice, on the 53-man roster, expected to play Week 1. Unquestioned alpha WR1 role with no new competition in Minnesota.
Tre Tucker	WR	62.9	28.0	+34.9	92	29.1	9.51	37	LV WR1 SECURE AI: BELONGSListed atop the Raiders' first 2026 depth chart ahead of Jalen Nailor, Jack Bech and Malik Benson; the room is thin with no clear alpha, so his 92-target role is safe even amid the new offense and QB change.
Troy Franklin	WR	72.0	37.6	+34.4	104	30.1	10.42	56	DEN WR5 BEHIND 4 ahead: Jaylen Waddle, Courtland Sutton, Marvin Mims Jr., Pat Bryant AI: REMOVESituation collapsed: Denver traded for Jaylen Waddle (now top-two with Sutton) and Pat Bryant clearly won the WR3 battle in camp — beat reports call Franklin's camp usage 'ominous,' leaving his 104-target 2025 role gone.
Rashid Shaheed	WR	53.8	25.8	+28.0	92	22.9	8.7	57	SEA WR2 BEHIND 1 ahead: Jaxon Smith-Njigba drafted: Emmanuel Henderson Jr. (R6) AI: CAUTIONSeattle re-signed him with talk of an expanded role, but the late-August depth chart has him third behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Tory Horton, with Cooper Kupp also in the room — the target role the buy thesis depends on is contested, not secured.
Keenan Allen	WR	71.0	44.1	+26.9	122	23.4	10.75	58	IND WR3 MOVED BEHIND 2 ahead: Alec Pierce, Josh Downs drafted: Deion Burks (R7) AI: CAUTIONWith Alec Pierce on PUP, Allen is expected to start the opener alongside Josh Downs under his old OC Shane Steichen — but he sat unsigned until Aug 19, missed nearly all of camp, and was arrested for DUI on Aug 30, so his 122-target role is far from guaranteed.
Brian Thomas	WR	57.5	32.3	+25.3	91	26.6	9.91	42	JAX WR1 SECURE drafted: Josh Cameron (R6), CJ Williams (R6) AI: BELONGSLocked-in Jaguars WR1 with camp reports of growing chemistry with Trevor Lawrence in Liam Coen's offense; his late-August shoulder scare proved minor and he's on track for Week 1.
Jordan Addison	WR	53.8	29.0	+24.7	79	29.9	9.65	96	MIN WR2 BEHIND 1 ahead: Justin Jefferson AI: BELONGSClear Vikings WR2 behind Justin Jefferson with a strong camp and only a minor thumb issue; new QB Kyler Murray worked extensively with him this offseason and he's motivated in a contract year.

📉 Receiving — scoring ahead of role

Points outran the underlying role — TD- and efficiency-driven seasons that history says regress.

Player	Pos	Role pct	PPG pct	Gap	PPG	SoS pct	Current opportunity
De'Von Achane	RB	20.4	93.5	-73.1	20.18	94 SOFT SLATE	MIA RB1 SECURE AI: REMOVEThe regression premise no longer holds: with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle gone, camp reports call Achane the clear alpha and centerpiece of the new offense, backed by a 4-year $64M extension — his target role is set to expand toward his scoring, not regress.
Rashee Rice	WR	19.4	90.3	-71.0	18.76	69	KC WR1 SECURE AI: BELONGSThe warning holds and is reinforced: guilty plea to two felonies with an NFL conduct hearing set for Sept 30 (suspension risk after Week 4), 30 days in jail during OTAs, and a recent return from a knee procedure — availability risk stacks on the TD-driven scoring profile.
Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	28.5	95.7	-67.2	21.58	63	DET RB1 SECURE AI: CAUTIONDan Campbell is publicly planning a bell-cow workload under new OC Drew Petzing after Gibbs's hold-in ended with a new contract, which cuts against pure regression — but the boost is overall volume, not specifically receiving, and the new scheme leaves the receiving-TD question open.
Ashton Jeanty	RB	10.2	77.4	-67.2	14.42	5	LV RB1 SECURE AI: CAUTIONNew HC Klint Kubiak is deliberately expanding Jeanty's passing-game role (slot alignments, daily route work), which would grow the role his rookie receiving scoring outran — but an Aug 23 ankle sprain leaves Week 1 uncertain, so the bigger role is a plan, not yet demonstrated.
Bijan Robinson	RB	34.9	96.8	-61.8	21.81	74	ATL RB1 SECURE AI: REMOVEThe receiving role is real and growing, not fluky: top-3 among RBs in receiving yards/game and target share in 2025, Tyler Allgeier gone, a new staff planning more usage, and a fresh 3-yr/$75M extension as a true workhorse. Current facts invalidate the regression warning.
Chase Brown	RB	23.1	84.9	-61.8	16.62	29	CIN RB1 SECURE AI: CAUTIONCamp reports say Zac Taylor is designing the offense even more around Brown as a receiver (wide/slot alignments, motion) with Burrow healthy, which softens the warning — but pass-catching backup Samaje Perine is slated for plenty of playing time.

🔄 Rushing — bounce-back watch

Heavy volume (sticky) with bottom-tier RYOE per attempt (noisy). Efficiency mean-reverts; the carries usually don't.

Player	Att	Att pct	RYOE/Att	RYOE pct	PPG	SoS pct	Current opportunity
Christian McCaffrey	311	93.9	-0.54	3.0	24.51	25	SF RB1 SECURE AI: CAUTIONThe bounce-back needs his 94th-percentile carry volume to hold, and that's in doubt: age-30 off 413 touches, missed camp time and all preseason with calf tightness, the 49ers explicitly planning to reduce his workload, and rookie Kaelon Black set for a real share.
Ashton Jeanty	266	78.8	-0.18	6.1	14.42	5 TOUGH SLATE	LV RB1 SECURE AI: CAUTIONNew HC Klint Kubiak is deliberately expanding Jeanty's passing-game role (slot alignments, daily route work), which would grow the role his rookie receiving scoring outran — but an Aug 23 ankle sprain leaves Week 1 uncertain, so the bigger role is a plan, not yet demonstrated.
Travis Etienne	260	75.8	+0.16	21.2	14.94	26	NO RB1 MOVED SECURE AI: BELONGSSigned 4-yr/$52M with New Orleans, and with Alvin Kamara out at least a month (MCL) and Kendre Miller/Devin Neal banged up, Etienne opens the season as the clear lead back — the volume role the bounce-back thesis requires is intact.
Saquon Barkley	280	81.8	+0.24	27.3	14.52	49	PHI RB1 SECURE AI: BELONGSUnquestioned workhorse role holds: spry all camp, the rebuilt line dominated joint practices, and the new OC's wide-run scheme is expected (per Lane Johnson) to bring back '2024 Saquon' — exactly the setup for positive RYOE mean reversion.

⚠️ Rushing — efficiency regression watch

Top-percentile RYOE per attempt — the least stable metric we measured. Great seasons, fragile foundations.

Player	Att	RYOE/Att	RYOE pct	PPG	SoS pct	Current opportunity
James Cook	309	+1.13	97.0	17.78	80 SOFT SLATE	BUF RB1 SECURE AI: BELONGSNothing invalidates the regression warning: still Buffalo's workhorse after leading the NFL in rushing on 97th-percentile RYOE — the least stable metric — and an expanded receiving role cushions fantasy value but doesn't change the expected rushing-efficiency regression.
Derrick Henry	307	+1.05	93.9	16.44	54	BAL RB1 SECURE drafted: Adam Randall (R5) AI: BELONGSThe warning is strengthened: age-32 season with the rookie OC planning ~300 carries and no upgraded competition — he keeps the volume while 94th-percentile RYOE at that age is the classic profile to regress hard.
J.K. Dobbins	153	+1.04	90.9	11.59	96 SOFT SLATE	DEN RB1 SECURE drafted: Jonah Coleman (R4) AI: BELONGSReinforced: despite topping Denver's first depth chart, the backfield is a crowded committee with rookie Jonah Coleman impressing plus RJ Harvey — analysts openly call Dobbins a 'September rental,' so his 91st-percentile efficiency is unlikely to survive both regression and shrinking touches.
Devon Achane	238	+1.04	87.9	20.18	94 SOFT SLATE	MIA RB1 SECURE AI: BELONGSSell-high thesis intact: value at an all-time peak (Pro Bowl, 4-yr/$64M extension, centerpiece of the new offense) while Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are gone — defenses can key on him, making his 88th-percentile RYOE even harder to repeat.
Jordan Mason	159	+0.94	84.8	8.06	64	MIN RB4 BEHIND 3 ahead: Aaron Jones Sr., Demond Claiborne, DeeJay Dallas drafted: Demond Claiborne (R6) AI: CAUTIONEfficiency regression is still likely, but the warning is softened by rising usage: Minnesota's first depth chart lists 'Aaron Jones Sr. OR Jordan Mason' as co-starters and analysts project him for the bulk of carries — a growing role can offset per-carry regression.
Bijan Robinson	287	+0.88	81.8	21.81	74	ATL RB1 SECURE AI: REMOVEThe receiving role is real and growing, not fluky: top-3 among RBs in receiving yards/game and target share in 2025, Tyler Allgeier gone, a new staff planning more usage, and a fresh 3-yr/$75M extension as a true workhorse. Current facts invalidate the regression warning.

🎯 Quarterbacks — accuracy without the points

High CPOE (real accuracy) with lagging fantasy output — environment upgrades unlock these.

Player	CPOE	PPG	Gap	SoS pct	Current opportunity
Sam Darnold	+4.10	13.85	+72.0	50	SEA QB1 SECURE AI: BELONGSConfirmed Seahawks starter coming off a Super Bowl-winning 2025 with the NFL's third-best scoring offense; returns to the same team/scheme for the first time since 2022, with Rashid Shaheed now alongside Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Jordan Love	+3.93	15.68	+52.0	90	GB QB1 SECURE AI: BELONGSEntrenched starter on a contender entering year four, and with Josh Jacobs on the commissioner's exempt list the offense is expected to run through Love's arm more than ever — a passing-volume boost that supports the accuracy-gap thesis.
Geno Smith	+1.56	11.59	+48.0	29	NYJ QB1 MOVED SECURE drafted: Cade Klubnik (R4) AI: BELONGSTraded to the Jets, and HC Aaron Glenn says he has 'no doubt' Smith is the 2026 starter ('He's our guy'), giving him Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall and Adonai Mitchell — a confirmed job with a plausible environment upgrade over the 2025 Raiders.
Jacoby Brissett	+3.53	16.25	+36.0	76	ARI QB1 SECURE drafted: Carson Beck (R3) AI: CAUTIONConfirmed Week 1 starter after a reworked 1-year deal, but the situation didn't improve: a bridge QB on a struggling Cardinals roster with rookie Carson Beck behind him — the leash is short and no environment upgrade materialized.
Tua Tagovailoa	-0.37	11.48	+32.0	26	ATL QB2 MOVED BEHIND 1 ahead: Michael Penix Jr. AI: CAUTIONReleased by Miami and signed a 1-year deal in Atlanta, but he is NOT the confirmed starter — the Week 1 QB competition with Michael Penix Jr. is unresolved as of early September; the environment-upgrade thesis can't fire until he wins the job.
Joe Flacco	-0.66	11.28	+32.0	93	CIN QB2 BEHIND 1 ahead: Joe Burrow AI: REMOVERe-signed with Cincinnati explicitly as Joe Burrow's backup (Burrow healthy and starting) — he is not a 2026 starter, which invalidates the accuracy-gap unlock thesis entirely.

Sources: NFL Next Gen Stats + nflverse play-by-play, depth charts, snap counts and draft data (see the project's data source list). Percentiles computed among qualified players (2025 regular season, min 60 targets / 150 carries / 300 attempts, min 6 games for PPG). Recent snap share appears once current-season games are played and is the most reliable role signal. AI notes generated 2026-09-02 10:16 UTC by Claude with live news search (refresh via /vet-watchlist in Claude Code).

Change Username